The Politcs1 Election Forecast - Part 2
November 1st, 2006
TUESDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 2.FLORIDA:
GOVERNOR: Polls all year have given the Republicans an advantage in holding the seat being vacated by term-limited Governor Jeb Bush (R). Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) -- a capable and affable politician who has already won statewide office twice -- has run a very well-financed and safe campaign. He emerged from his primary largely unscathed (although public questions of his sexual orientation and hypocrisy continue to swirl). By contrast, Congressman Jim Davis (D) won a primary that inflicted some bruises on the nominee. It forced Davis to waste some time repairing the damage. Crist also outraised Davis by more than a 2-to-1 margin (disclaimer: I'm a Davis contributor and supporter). While Davis has been narrowing the gap in recent days -- cutting Crist's advantage to the single digits and winning the two televised debates -- Crist still will likely win. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Bill Nelson (D) will easily defeat Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) by at least a 2-to-1 margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-8: Congressman Ric Keller (R) was once viewed as vulnerable, but he should have no trouble defeating businssman Charlie Stuart (D). CD-9: "The King is dead. Long live the King." Retiring 12-term Congressman Mike Bilirakis (R) will have no trouble handing his seat over to his son. State Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) will defeat former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky (D) -- a credible candidate -- by a comfortable margin. CD-11: Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor (D) is a lock to win Congressman Davis' open CD-11 seat by a landslide margin. CD-13: Based upon reported spending, this is the most expensive US House race in the nation. Auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) spent millions from his own deep pockets to win the primary for Congresswoman Harris' open seat. In so doing, Buchanan left lots of hurt feelings that remain unhealed. Those rifts -- and some gaffes and missteps by Buchanan -- have helped wealthy bank president Christine Jennings (D), who is also spending from her own pockets. Jennings will score an upset and win this seat -- and set Jennings up as a top NRCC target for 2008. CD-16: The Democrats can bank this GOP seat as a "gimme," thanks to disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley (R). Foley resigned from the House and quit the race last month, but too late for the Republicans to put replacement nominee Joe Negron on the ballot. Voters must vote for Foley to vote for Negron -- so place venture capitalisy Tim Mahoney (D) in the win column. CD-22: Congressman Clay Shaw (R) is facing the toughest fight of his political life, in what is the second most expensive House race in the nation. State Senator Ron Klein (D) has assailed Shaw for being too close to President Bush. Keep in mind this was a district -- even though redrawn in 2002 to help Shaw -- won in 2004 by John Kerry. Shaw has countered with attacks on Klein for being "a lobbyist." Shaw also likes to claim he will be the next Ways & Means Committee Chair, although there is almost no chance of this coming true (as anyone inside the Beltway could tell you the W+M Chair will be either Republican Jim McCrery or Democrat Charlie Rangel, depending upon which party controls the House next year). This is the first time -- after years of failed DCCC hype that "Shaw can be beaten" -- that I believe Shaw will actually lose. The national political climate will claim Shaw as a victim, as Klein will win by a close margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('FL06');
GEORGIA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Sonny Perdue (R) appears to be heading towards a landslide re-election win over Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-4: DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson (D) already won this seat when he ousted controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney (D) in the primary. The general election is just the coronation for Johnson. CD-8: Former Congressman Mac Collins (R) lost the GOP primary for US Senate in 2004, and is now attempting to return to DC by challenging Congressman Jim Marshall (D) in this redrawn district. He's run a credible campaign, but Marshall will survive. CD-12: Former Congressman Max Burns (R) is challenging freshman Congressman John Barrows (D), the man who ousted him in 2004. This rematch race won't end any differently than did the last one. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('GA06');
HAWAII:
GOVERNOR: Governor Linda Lingle (R) will win in a landslide over former State Senator Randy Iwase (R). This sets up Lingle's likely run for US Senator in 2010. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: Once US Senator Dan Akaka (D) survived the primary challenge from Congressman Ed Case (D), he was on cruise control to victory in November. Akaka will have no problem defeating State Representative Cynthia Thielen (R) by a wide margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-2: Former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono (D) will have no problem winning Congressman Case's open seat. She will defeat State Senator Bob Hogue (R) by a comfortable amount in this safe Dem district. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('HI06');
IDAHO:
GOVERNOR: Congressman Butch Otter (R) is locked in a surprisingly tight contest with newspaper publisher Jerry Brady (D). Brady -- who was the Dem nominee four years ago -- ran a respectable race in 2002. This year, with the national political climate, Brady's chances are even better. Polls in these closing days show the race virtually tied. However, the colorful Otter will score a surprisingly narrow win in this reddest of red states. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-1: Democrats rejoiced when controversial State Representative Bill Sali won the crowded GOP primary for Otter's open seat. Sali -- an arch-conservative -- is a bombastic "loose cannon" despised by nearly all his GOP colleagues in the state legislature. In fact, the Speaker and other Republicans have worked to undermine Sali's campaign. Businessman Larry Grant (D) is the beneficiary of this GOP in-fighting. Grant may become a "one-termer" in this heavily Republican district, but he'll still win this seat in 2006. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('ID06');
ILLINOIS:
GOVERNOR: Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) may be mired in the taint of scandal, but that isn't stopping him from rolling to a second term over hapless State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R). While Blagojevich has yet to be formally charged with anything -- or even officially named as a target of the swirling investigations (although he was clearly the unnamed "political official" in a recent pay-to-play corruption indictment of a crony) -- the Republicans are also tied to a legacy of corruption in the Illinois Governor's Mansion. Attorney Rich Whitney (Green) will finish in the double-digits merely as a protest voted cast for the only seemingly untainted candidate in the race. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: In national tidal wave election years in the past, Illinois frequently produced at least one of the totally unexpected House upsets. That said, these races are already holding attention of pundits. CD-6: In the race for the open seat of retiring Congressman Henry Hyde (R), State Senator Peter Roskam (R) is locked in a tough race with disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). In normal circumstances, Roskam should win handily due to district demographics. Instead, he'll win by a relatively close margin. CD-8: When Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first elected in 2004 by upsetting an entrenched GOP incumbent, Republicans vowed Bean would be a one-termer. Instead, she looks positioned to easily defeat wealthy investment banker David McSweeney (D). CD-17: Congressman Lane Evans (D) is retiring for health reasons. Phil Hare (D) -- Evans' Chief of Staff -- will likely defeat former TV news anchor Andrea Lane Zinga (R) by several points. RESULTS: NO CHANGES..
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('IL06');
INDIANA:
US SENATE: No Democrat even bothered to file against US Senator Dick Lugar (R), guaranteeing him a sixth term in the Senate against his Libertarian Party challenger. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: For a red state, Indiana is looking surprisingly purple this year -- in large part because of a combination of the national political climate and high disapproval ratings for Governor Mitch Daniels (R). CD-2: Congressman Chris Chocola (R), a two-term incumbent, is facing a rematch this year against attorney Joe Donnelly (D). For whatever reason, voters here have never developed very warm feelings towards Chocola. Polls have shown Chocola trailing for months, by varying margins. Donnelly will win the rematch in this swing district. CD-7: Congresswoman Julia Carson (D) is a perennial GOP target. She runs weak campaigns, yet somehow Carson survives each time. One October indy poll showed Carson trailing wealthy auto dealer Eric Dickerson (R), but it appears to be an outlier. Carson will win another close one. CD-8: Democrats incorrectly predict the imminent electoral demise of Congressman John Hostettler (R) every two years. A chronically poor fundraiser, Hosteller struggled to victory in all of his past reelection contests -- including the ones against weaker challengers. Hostettler's luck will run out this year in his run for a seventh term, as Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) will defeat him. CD-9: 2006 marks the third time in a row that Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) and former Congressman Baron Hill (D) will face-off. Hill won the 2002 race, while Sodrel won the 2004 rematch. Sodrel has trailed in all of the indy polls since Labor Day. It's time for the seesaw here to flip again, as Hill will win round #3 (setting up Hill-Sodrel rematch #4 in 2008). RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('IN06');
IOWA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Tom Vilsack (D), the current DLC Chair and a possible 2008 White House hopeful, is term-limited. The gubernatorial race appeared to be one of the best opportunities in the nation for the GOP to score a pickup in an otherwise gloomy electoral year. Congressman Jim Nussle (R) is a strong candidate with a unified party behind him -- and Nussle was able to regularly win crossover votes in past years in his CD-1 swing district. However, Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) -- who is sometimes viewed as a bit of a lightweight -- also is running a fairly strong campaign. In any other year -- with the field being fairly level -- Nussle would scrape out a win. This year, however, Culver will win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Three races to watch. CD-1: Excluding Nussle's wins here, this district is otherwise fairly solidly Democratic in its propensities. Both parties nominated strong candidates: former Iowa Trial Lawyers Association President Bruce Braley (D) and restaurant chain owner Mike Whalen (R). Both men are wealthy and have been able to help with self-financing. With Braley, the Dems will finally reclaim this former Dem bastion. CD-2: Nobody is paying much attention to this district, but it could be one of the sleeper races to watch. Congressman Jim Leach (R) -- one of the most moderate Republicans in the House -- is facing an energetic challenge from college professor Dave Loebsack (D), a grassroots progressive activist. While Leach holds a major fundraising advantage, Loebsack will keep this race surprisingly close. Leach should win, but it won't be by much. CD-3: Republicans would really like to defeat Congressman Leonard Boswell (D), as he's a frequent NRCC target. The GOP initially had high hopes for State Senate President Jeff Lamberti (R), but he has lagged far behind Boswell for months in the polls. While the Republicans are still is warmly backing Lamberti -- at least, in words of praise -- the NRCC cut-off his financial support a month ago to instead concentrate on defending embattled GOP incumbents. Boswell will survive again, and by a fairly comfortable margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('IA06');
KANSAS:
GOVERNOR: Governor Kathleen Sebelius -- a centrist DLC-style Dem -- is an anomaly: a highly popular Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation. And, like in 2002, Sebelius again selected a former Republican as her Lieutenant Governor runningmate in order to take advantage of the chronic rift here in the GOP between Religious Right conservatives and more socially-moderate, fiscal conservatives. State Senator Jim Bennett (R) is not a bad candidate, but he still will lose by at least 10-points. The Dems also have the potential to unexpectedly pickup 1-2 statewide offices, largely on the strength of Sebelius' coattails and the ongoing GOP in-fighting. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: The Democrats have fielded some credible House candidates here -- particularly pharmaceutical researcher Nancy Boyda (R) in her rematch against CD-2 Congressman Jim Ryun (R) -- but don't expect any miracle upsets here. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('KS06');
KENTUCKY:
US HOUSE: CD-3. Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) is another perennial DCCC target, yet she survives (and sometimes by rather significant margins) in this swing district. Her opponent this year is liberal newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D). Independent polls since Labor Day have essentially shown the race as a virtual tie, with Yarmuth possibly holding a very slim advantage. Despite this, look for Northup's luck to hold up with her bucking the national wave and winning yet another term. CD-4: In 2002, Congressman Ken Lucas (D) held off a stiff challenge from military veteran Geoff Davis (R). In 2004, Lucas honored his voluntary term-limits pledge and retired -- giving Davis the opportunity to win the seat. Now, in 2006, it is retired Congressman Lucas challenging freshman Congressman Geoff Davis (R). Polls have shown the lead swinging back and forth between the two men. This race is close: so close that either man stands a nearly equal chance of winning. But, since I have to make the call, I'll say Davis survives by the narrowest of margins. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('KY06');
LOUISIANA:
US HOUSE: Under Louisiana state law, an open congressional primary involving candidates from all parties will be held on November 7. If no one candidate wins a majority of the vote, then the top finishers (regardless of party) will advance to a December run-off. CD-2. Congressman Bill Jefferson (D) is in big trouble. The FBI raided Jefferson's New Orleans home and found over $90,000 cash from purported bribes hidden in the freezer. The FBI also raided Jefferson's Capitol Hill office and a top Jefferson aide already pled guilty to helping facilitate those bribes -- so it's only a matter of time before Jefferson is indicted. Based upon all of this, the state Democratic Party endorsed State Representative Karen Carter (D) in her race against Jefferson. In addition to Carter, 11 others are also running. Carter will win this race -- the only question is whether she does it outright in the primary (unlikely) or in the run-off. CD-3: Freshman Congressman Charlie Melancon (D) is facing an aggressive fight rematch from State Senator Craig Romero (R), an '04 hopeful who narrowly missed making the run-off. Despite the challenge, Melancon will win a second term. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('LA06');
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
Just one week until Election Day.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount('110106a');
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily "thank you" note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. OUR THANKS TODAY GO TO: Attorney Lois Murphy, Democrat for Congress in Pennsylvania's CD-6.
WANNA TRADE?
I'm interested in building up my collection of Canadian campaign buttons. If you've got Canadian political buttons to trade, I'm interesting in swapping with you for some great US pins. Please drop me a note!
WRITERS WANTED: WRITE FOR POLITICS1.
Claim your 15 minutes of online fame with the political crowd. Click here to learn more about writing for Politics1.
Entry Filed under: Contributions, In the News, politics