The Politcs1 Election Forecast - Part 4(New Hampshire - Oregon)
November 2nd, 2006
FRIDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 4.NEW HAMPSHIRE:
GOVERNOR: Governor John Lynch (D) will win a second term in a landslide, likely finishing above the 70% mark. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-2: A recent indy poll showed attorney Paul Hodes (D) leading Congressman Charlie Bass (R), but it seemed to be an outlier since other polls place Bass ahead in this rematch of the 2004 race. Hodes will do well -- better than he did two years ago -- but Bass should still hold the seat. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('NH06');
NEW JERSEY:
US SENATE: Congressman Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the US Senate vacancy a year ago, and has struggled ever since to hold his seat against hard-charging State Senator Tom Kean Jr. (R). Kean has blasted Menendez for months for various purported ethics problems. In return, Menendez blasted Kean -- a GOP centrist -- for his ties to the unpopular Republican leadership in DC. The lead has swung back and forth between the two men for months. While Menendez may be a weak candidate, the overall Democratic propensities of the Garden State should help Menendez win a full-term in the Senate by a narrow margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: An upset is always possible in any of these more competitive contests, but none are currently on the "sleeper" radar. In the open CD-13 race, State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires (D) is a safe bet to win. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('NJ06');
NEW MEXICO:
GOVERNOR: Governor Bill Richardson (D) -- a likely 2008 White House candidate -- will cruise to a landslide win over former State GOP Chair John Dendahl. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Jeff Bingaman (D) will likewise score a landslide win for a fifth term. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-1: Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has regularly survived tough Democratic challenges in this swing district. This year, however, her luck will run out. Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) has either been tied with or slightly leading Wilson in most independent polls since Labor Day. Both women are strong candidates running aggressive campaigns. The national wave, and the strength of the Dems at the top of the NM ticket, will conspire to give Madrid the victory. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('NM06');
NEW YORK:
GOVERNOR: Governor George Pataki (R) did not seek reelection to a fifth term in order to prepare for a possible White House run. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) has been a lock to win this race -- and win it big -- from the start. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Hillary Clinton (R) will score an easy win for a second term against former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer (R). RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Several seats in play here, due in part to both the national Democratic wave and coattails from the incredible strength of the Spitzer-Clinton ticket within the state. CD-3: Congressman Peter King (R) is facing an aggressive challenge from Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias (D) in this swing district. Recent polls show King holding a single-digit edge -- and this could be another of the sleeper races -- but King appears likely to survive. CD-11: New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke (D) is a safe bet to win this open seat, as the September primary was the only real fight here. CD-19: Congresswoman Sue Kelly (R) is facing a very strong challenge from former Ulster County Legislator and 1970s rock band member John Hall (D). Hall has proven to be a much tougher foe than Kelly seems to have anticipated, and polls show this race is very close. This one is a coin toss, but I'll call it for Hall in an upset. CD-20: The nasty and personal contest between Congressman John Sweeney (R) and attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has been on the national radar for months. Several news reports hinted that Governor Pataki and his GOP allies are quietly helping the Dem, as Sweeney is one of Pataki's leading critics within the NY Republican Party. Gillibrand is an attractive candidate, but the district's demographics heavily favor Sweeney -- so much so that it should allow Sweeney to survive the challenge. CD-24: Congressman Sherwood Boehlert (R) -- a prototypical RINO representing a Dem-leaning district won by John Kerry in 2004 -- is retiring. State Senator Ray Meier (R) and Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri (D) are facing-off for the open seat. Meier is much more conservative than Boehlert, so he'll be a harder sell for the GOP in this center-left district. Dems have had their eye on this seat for years, waiting for Boehlert's retirement to place it into play. Look for Arcuri to score a Dem pickup. CD-26: Congressman Tom Reynolds (R) -- the current NRCC Chair -- is facing a very tough rematch against wealthy retired industrialist and former Republican Jack Davis (D). Reynolds' apparent knowledge of and cover-up of the Mark Foley congressional page sex scandal -- possibly for nearly a year before the scandal publicly broke -- put the incumbent on the defensive. In fact, it appears Reynolds last year convinced Foley to seek re-election in 2006 when Foley was thinking of retiring, and then got Foley to donate $100,000 to the NRCC. This race could go either way, despite the district's natural Republican lean, and polls have shown the lead swinging back and forth between the two men. Chalk up Reynolds as another victim of the wave, as Davis will score a narrow win (probably making Davis the oldest incoming freshman in the next Congress). CD-29: Democrats initially had high hopes for the candidacy of retired Navy officer Eric Massa (D) against first-term Congressman Randy Kuhl (R). Massa served as an aide to General Wes Clark when Clark was the NATO Supreme Allied Commander in the 1990s. Massa's campaign, however, made several stumbles and generally under-performed. That should enable Kuhl to survive in this very bad year for New York Republicans. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('NY06');
NORTH CAROLINA:
US HOUSE: CD-8: Teacher and former textile plant manager Larry Kissell (D) is waging a much-stronger-than-expected challenge to Congressman Robin Hayes (R). However, Hayes will survive. CD-11: The DCCC has targeted Congressman Charles Taylor (R) repeatedly during his eight-terms in the House, yet he always survived. However, the longer Taylor has served, the more the ethics problems mount. On top of that, Taylor cast some locally unpopular free trade votes and the Dems recruited a top-notch challenger in former pro football player and real estate executive Heath Shuler (D). Shuler will defeat Taylor, likely by at least several points. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('NC06');
NORTH DAKOTA:
US SENATE: US Senator Kent Conrad (D) has the highest approval ratings of any Democratic Senator in the nation. He will win in a landslide over Anderson Town Councilman Dwight Grotberg (R). RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D) will have no problem fending off an energetic challenge from farmer Matt Mechtel (R). RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('ND06');
OHIO:
GOVERNOR: Term-limited Governor Bob Taft (R) pled guilty last year in a plea bargain to misdemeanor corruption charges, yet remained in office despite numerous calls for his resignation. In response, Ohio voters have given Taft possibly the highest negative rating ever recorded for a sitting Governor (at one point earlier this year, an independent poll showed only a dismal 9% of residents approved of Taft's overall performance). Fair or not, the "Taft taint" has poisoned nearly everyone and anyone in the Ohio Republican Party who is locked in a competitive race this year. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) and Congressman Ted Strickland (D) are seeking the open seat. Blackwell is a social conservative who defeated a Taft ally in the GOP primary. Strickland is a moderate, pro-gun Democrat. Blackwell has trailed Strickland by double-digits for months, prompting Blackwell to act more desperate and, in turn, lose even more support. Strickland will win in a landslide -- and carry near all of the statewide Democratic slate to victory on his coattails. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Mike DeWine (R) looked in good shape for reelection just a year or so ago, but his numbers have declined with the demise of Taft and the Ohio Republicans. Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) has run a strong campaign against DeWine, bashing him for his pro-Bush and pro-Iraq War record. The NRSC poured money into the state a few weeks ago in a wave of anti-Brown advertising attacking him as "a liberal." When it barely dented Brown's lead, the NRSC canceled the remaining TV buys and financially pulled the plug on DeWine. Brown will win by several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: Thanks to Governor Taft (the gift that keeps giving to the Democrats), the Dems will score several congressional pickups that were inconceivable just a year ago. CD-1: Congressman Steve Chabot (R) is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley (D). The two men first met in the 2000 race, which Chabot won. Chabot will lose the rematch for the same reason as DeWine: because he's an Ohio Republican in a swing district. CD-2: Dems would love to oust Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (R), who earned their enmity with her nasty House floor remarks last year accusing decorated Korean War veteran and Congressman John Murtha (D-PA) of "cut and run" cowardice. This district is overwhelmingly Republican, yet Schmidt is locked in a close fight with physician Victoria Wulsin (D). In part, this is because many Republicans here have also not warmed to Schmidt. A month ago, I'd have called this race for Schmidt. However, several independent polls show Wulsin has momentum and a slight lead. Look for Wulsin to score a major upset, even though she may well be a one-termer because of the district's demographics. CD-3: Two-term Congressman Mike Turner (R) is being challenged by former Assistant US Attorney Dick Chema (D). Place this one on the list of possible sleepers, but Turner should win. CD-4: State Senator Jim Jordan (R) is expected to defeat former Lima Law Director Rick Siferd (D) by a comfortable margin, in the race for this open GOP seat. CD-6: State Senator Charlie Wilson (D) will cruise to a big win over State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel (D) for Congressman Strickland's open seat. CD-12: Former one-term Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) is surprisingly giving Congressman Pat Tiberi (R) a real run for his money. Shamansky hasn't held elective office in over 20 years, but the Iraq War is resonating with voters as a solid issue for him. Tiberi will win, but it won't be an impressive win. CD-14: Former State Representative Betty Sutton (D) is headed to a surprisingly easy victory over Lorain Mayor Craig Fultin (R) for Congressman Brown's open seat. At one point, this open seat was high on the NRCC radar. CD-15: Congresswoman Deborah Pryce (R) has been a rising star in the House Republican Leadership. Now that status -- and her past support for partially privatizing Social Security -- are coming back to hurt her. Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is a running a very aggressive, in-your-face campaign that appears likely to topple Pryce. The incumbent has fought back with a real intensity, trying to bolster her credentials as a political independent, but Kilroy will win this race. CD-18: Congressman Bob Ney (R), who recently pled guilty to federal felony corruption charges, quit his race for re-election here. Ney and other Republican leaders quickly recruited State Senator Joy Padgett (R) -- a close Taft ally -- as the replacement GOP nominee. Dover Law Director and hotel developer Zach Space (D) has run a creative, energetic campaign. He may be too liberal to win this GOP district in your average year, but this isn't an average year. Even the NRCC has canceled any further expenditures on behalf of Padgett, because she is too far behind in both public and internal polls. Space will win by at least several points. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 4 SEATS (and maybe more).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('OH06');
OKLAHOMA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Brad Henry (D) is coasting to a surprisingly easy win over Congressman Ernest Istook (R) -- possibly by as large as a 2-to-1 margin. Why did Istook give up his safe House seat in favor of this impossible race? RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-5: Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin (R) will defeat surgeon David Hunter (D) by a huge margin for Congressman Istook's open seat in this safe GOP district. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('OK06');
OREGON:
GOVERNOR: Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) holds lukewarm approval ratings, yet he'll still win a second term thanks to a relatively weak GOP nominee. Former Portland School Board Member Ron Saxton (R) -- who was a pro-choice GOP centrist in his 2002 primary run for Governor -- is now repackaged as a pro-life conservative. Just as the unions are fairly tepid in their support for the centrist Kulongoski, social conservatives are equally wary of Saxton. Adding to Saxton's woes is the candidacy of Mary Starrett (Constitution), a popular retired TV news anchor and pro-life activist. It won't be a convincing win for Kulongoski, but a win is still a win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: A few credible challengers are running, but all of the Congressional incumbents look likely to win new terms. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('OR06');
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.03.06 | Permalink | postCount('110306a');
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