The Politcs1 Election Forecast - Part 3 (Maine - Nevada)
November 1st, 2006
WEDNESDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 3.MAINE:
GOVERNOR: Governor John Baldacci (D) may hold a fairly low approval rating, but he will still win a re-election by a comfortable plurality. State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) -- who is too conservative to be truly competitive in this center-left state -- will limp in at a distant second place. Interestingly, both State Representative Barbara Merrill (Independent) and radio talk show host Pat LaMarche (Green) appear headed to respectable double-digit finishes. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Olympia Snowe (R) will score a landslide re-election -- possibly by the largest margin this year of any US Senate race in the nation. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-8: Both incumbents are very safe. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('ME06');
MARYLAND:
GOVERNOR: Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) was elected in an upset four years ago in this heavily Democratic state, in large part because of the inept campaign run by his then-opponent. This time, however, Ehrlich will not be so fortunate. Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) is a strong contender and has run a decent campaign. Some indy polls in recent months showed Ehrlich closing the gap (and then losing ground again), but not one has shown him leading O'Malley. Look for O'Malley to win by at least several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring. Ten-term Congressman Ben Cardin (D), Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) and peace activist Kevin Zeese (Green) are running to replace him. Steele has shown surprising strength for a Maryland Republican, with polls frequently showing him in a virtual tie with Cardin. Despite a fairly conservative record, Steele has worked to distance himself from President Bush's agenda. Despite this, Steele will find it very hard to overcome the Democratic wave on Election Day. Cardin will win, probably by a margin of at least 4-points. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-3: Attorney John Sarbanes (D) -- the son of the retiring US Senator -- will easily win Cardin's open House seat. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MD06');
MASSACHUSETTS:
GOVERNOR: After just one term, Governor Mitt Romney (R) did not seek re-election in order to concentrate on laying the groundwork for a 2008 Presidential run. Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick won the competitive Democratic primary with surprising ease, and has held an solid advantage ever since. Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) has lagged far behind, seemingly having trouble crossing the rather low 30% threshold in polls. Wealthy Republican businessman Christy Mihos was pressured out of the GOP contest, so he is running instead as an Independent -- and further hurting Healey by siphoning away some GOP votes. Patrick will win by a very big margin, making him the state's first ever African-American Governor and the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here since 1986. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Ted Kennedy (D) will score yet another landslide re-election victory. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: No competitive congressional races -- and 5 of the state's 10 incumbents were already reelected without any opposition at all. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MA06');
MICHIGAN:
GOVERNOR: When billionaire Amway executive Dick DeVos (R) launched his campaign last year against Governor Jennifer Granholm (D), polls showed the incumbent was highly vulnerable. A weak state economy seemed to further hurt Granholm. However, the national anti-Republican wave and an aggressive campaign by the incumbent propelled her back into a comfortable lead in recent weeks. Despite high early GOP hopes here, Granholm will win a second term -- likely by at least 10-points. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) is facing a surprisingly energetic challenge from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R). However, Bouchard is under-funded and running in a bad year for Republican challengers. Stabenow will win by at least 10-15%. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Democrats fielded decent challengers in several districts -- and any one of these candidates has the potential of being in the right place at the right time to capitalize on the national wave with an upset win -- but right now the incumbents all appear likely to survive. CD-7: Former State Representative and Religious Right activist Tim Walberg ousted moderate freshman Congressman Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary. The district is fairly solidly Republican, and paralegal and farmer Sharon Reiner (D) is not viewed as a particularly strong nominee. With little resources, Reiner will come closer than anyone expects, but Walberg will still win the seat. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MI06');
MINNESOTA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) looked strong and his proclaimed independent streak seemed to help him distance himself from the national GOP in this Dem-leaning state. Further, the Democrats nominated Attorney General Mike Hatch, an unexciting candidate who has run twice before for Governor. Respected former State Finance Commissioner Peter Hutchinson (Independence) -- who served under Governor Jesse Ventura (Independence) -- is also running. The national Democratic wave will claim Pawlenty as another one of the many GOP victims, but the final margin will be rather close. This will also end any talk of Pawlenty as a possible candidate for President or VP in 2008. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Mark Dayton (D), somewhat of a political gadfly, is not seeking a second term. Republicans quickly proclaimed Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) as the frontrunner for the open seat and touted him as the "strongest" shot in the nation for the GOP to score a pickup in the Senate. Well, that was all a long time ago. The Democrats quickly unified behind Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) and she roared into a solid lead. Kennedy is simply too conservative and too pro-Bush to win this seat in the current political climate. In fact, Kennedy is trailing Klobuchar by a rather wide margin. Klobuchar will easily keep this seat in Democratic hands. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Lots of unexpectedly close House races here, any of which could go either way. CD-1: Congressman Gil Gutknecht (R) is facing a surprisingly aggressive challenge from military veteran and teacher Tim Walz (D). This could be one of the sleeper races if the national wave is of tsunami proportions. I'm going out on a limb here, but I predict Walz will narrowly win defeat Gutknecht in a major upset. CD-2: Retired FBI Agent Coleen Rowley (D) was highly touted by the DCCC against Congressman John Kline (R) -- but then Rowley proceeded to run a bumbling campaign for months. With some summer staffing changes, Rowley seems to finally have her act together. This race will be much closer than anyone thinks, but Kline will survive. CD-5: This open seat is solidly Democratic, so State Representative Keith Ellison (D) is a lock to win -- and to become the first Muslim to serve in Congress. CD-6: State Senator Michelle Bachmann (R) and child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) are locked in a very competitive race for the seat being vacated by Congressman Kennedy. Bachmann is one of the most socially conservative members of the state legislature, but this does not seem to be hurting her (as Kennedy was also very conservative). Wetterling is a quality candidate with a compelling personal story, and has a real shot here. Polls show the lead shifting back and forth. Look for Bachmann to score a narrow win. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MN06');
MISSISSIPPI:
US SENATE: US Senator Trent Lott (R) will win a landslide re-election victory over State Representative and former LaRouche activist Erik Fleming (D). This will pave the way -- with Rick Santorum gone from the Senate -- for Lott to seek the Republican Whip position in the next Congress. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: The GOP challenger in CD-2 is a credible candidate, but all of the Mississippi incumbents are safe. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MS06');
MISSOURI:
US SENATE: The seat held by US Senator Jim Talent (R) has a rather volatile recent electoral history. In 2000, incumbent John Ashcroft (R) lost to deceased Governor Mel Carnahan (D). As promised, the Governor appointed Carnahan's widow to serve the two-year term. In 2002, Talent ousted Carnahan. Further, this is a state highy-prone historically to being influenced by national trends. This year, look for the Democrats to reclaim the seat with a victory by State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D). McCaskill -- just two years after narrowly losing the 2004 gubernatorial race -- is running a smart campaign. She has also exploited Talent's weaknesses, particularly on issues like his waffling opposition to stem cell research. McCaskill will give the Dems one of the key seats they need for control of the Senate. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: None of the Congressional races here appear to be very competitive. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MO06');
MONTANA:
US SENATE: US Senator Conrad Burns (R) has spent the 2006 campaign dogged by news reports of serious corruption allegations involving his close ties to disgraced lobbyist and felon Jack Abramoff. Adding to Burns' problems is his propensity to repeatedly shoot himself in the foot with a series of embarrassing verbal gaffes. Combined with the national wave and recent Democratic gains in Montana (the Dems captured the Governorship and control of the state legislature in 2004), this spells defeat for Burns. State Senate President Jon Tester (D) is an unapologetic prairie populist. Burns may correctly label Tester "a liberal" but it won't matter because Tester will still win by several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: State Representative Monica Lindeen (D) is a decent candidate, but she won't come anywhere close to defeating Congressman Denny Rehberg (R). As an aside: Rehberg probably made a misstep a few months ago when he decided to not challenge Burns in the US Senate primary, as he may well have won the primary and been able to hold the seat for the GOP against Tester. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('MT06');
NEBRASKA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Dave Heineman (R) has one of the top approval ratings of any US Governor. In the May primary, Heineman scored a political miracle by handily defeating legendary Nebraska football coach and Congressman Tom Osborne. Heineman will win the general election with at least 70% of the vote. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Ben Nelson is probably the most conservative Democrat currently in the Senate. He is also a good match for this seat, as Nebraska has a modern history of sending like-minded Democrats to the Senate. Although wealthy former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts (R) has been spending lavishly from his own pocket, he won't come anywhere close to defeating Nelson. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Democrats are fielding a strong slate of candidates for all three of Nebraska's US House seats. Former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul (D) in CD-1 and former Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce Director Jim Esch (D) in CD-2 will both come close in their runs against GOP incumbents. Both Dems have run strong enough races to require the national Republicans to recently divert some dwindling funds to defending these normally safe seats. CD-3: The race to watch in Nebraska is the contest for Congressman Osborne's open seat. State Senator Adrian Smith (R) holds very fiscally conservative views -- including his opposition to federal farm subsidy programs and his free-trade views. Whether you agree or disagree with Smith's stances (and they are one of the reasons the conservative Club for Growth is strongly backing him), the views are hurting him significantly here. Rancher Scott Kleeb (D) is a telegenic candidate who is is effectively exploiting Smith's weaknesses with the district's huge agricultural base. Kleeb will score a shocking upset for the Dems in this solidly GOP district. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('NE06');
NEVADA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Kenny Guinn (R) is term-limited. Guinn's longtime nemesis within the Nevada GOP -- Congressman Jim Gibbons -- is the Republican nominee to succeed him. That explains why Guinn frequently bad-mouths Gibbons to the media and has declined to endorse Gibbons in the gubernatorial race against State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D). Titus is not a very strong candidate. She certainly is more liberal than the breed of past Democrats who have won major statewide races in Nevada. Fortunately for Titus, Gibbons is a highly flawed candidate has has to deal with with last-minute scandals in the closing days. First is the ongoing "he said"/"she said" soap opera over the late night incident just days ago in a casino hotel parking lot with a waitress. The woman called 911 and claimed Gibbons tried to sexually assault her. Gibbons said they both had been drinking, but he only helped grab her to stop he from falling when she tripped in the parking lot. A casino parking lot videotape has gone missing. The second problem are statewide TV news reports that the anti-illegal immigration Gibbons knowingly had an illegal alien working for several years in his household -- and then tried to cover it up when he feared the story would leak. These problems suggest Titus will score a narrow win -- not because of anything she is doing, so much as it is the public damage Gibbons is inflicting on himself in these final days. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator John Ensign (R) has faced a surprisingly energetic challenge from businessman and Presidential scion Jack Carter (D). Carter is an earnest hopeful, but Ensign has run a very safe campaign. Ensign will win by at least 10-points. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: While CD-1 Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) is safe, the other two districts are worth watching. CD-2. Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) and State University System Regent Jill Derby (D) are facing-off for Congressman Gibbons' open seat. Heller, a GOP moderate, narrowly won a very contentious primary over more conservative opponents. The contest was so bitter that the second place finisher unsuccessfully sued in state court to set-aside the CD-2 primary results and hold a re-vote. Derby is a good candidate -- and recent polls show the two leads essentially tied -- but Heller will win this race by at least 5-points. CD-3: This is another sleeper race to watch. Congressman Jon Porter (R) is being challenged by Tessa Hafen (D), a former top aide to US Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Hafen will come close, closer than anyone expects, but she won't defeat Porter. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount('NV06');
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