GOP “DEBATE”; OBAMA’S PROTECTION; FL BREAKS PRIMARY SCHEDULE; MIKE & CHUCK SUP
May 3rd, 2007
FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.GOP "DEBATE"; OBAMA'S PROTECTION; FL BREAKS PRIMARY SCHEDULE; MIKE & CHUCK SUP.
GOP DEBATE: "Ronald Reagan was great and I'd be just like him" was the overriding theme espoused by nearly every candidate on stage Thursday night in the first Republican Presidential Debate. Just like the Democratic debate last week, it was a rather tepid event dominated by 90-minutes of largely safe, predictable answers. One interesting moment came when the candidates were asked by a show of hands if any of them did not believe in the theory of evolution: three hands went up (Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee and Tom Tancredo). General thoughts on the evening: John McCain seemed to do well in simply delivering a solid enough performance that protected his first-tier status, while Hunter and Huckabee registered the strongest performances by second-tier hopefuls looking to emerge from the pack. Rudy Giuliani registered a somewhat weak performance by seeming to waffle on some issues. Mitt Romney looked very Presidential, but seemed to project himself as too slick and overly rehearsed. Ron Paul and Tancredo set themselves apart from the pack and from President Bush on some issues, but appear too far removed from the GOP mainstream to gain much traction in the primaries. Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore and Sam Brownback registered fairly bland performances. In fact, I challenge you to name a single unique point any of these three raised. Two big winners were absent: non-candidates Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich. There is clearly enough of a leadership vacuum and a lack of a solid conservative frontrunner in the GOP race so as to allow either or both of them to jump in this summer. The same probably is not true for the absent Chuck Hagel, as he would have to complete with Paul for anti-war Republican votes -- a decidedly minority view among hardcore GOP "super voters."
OBAMA: In response to non-specific threats received to date, US Senator Barack Obama this week was placed under US Secret Service protection. This marks the earliest Secret Service protection has ever been given to a Presidential primary candidate. FYI: US Senator Hillary Clinton, as a former US First Lady, still retains the Secret Service protection detail she has had since her days in the White House.
FLORIDA: Ignoring threats from both major parties, the Florida Legislature on Thursday passed a bill to break the official Presidential primary schedule. The bill -- which passed unanimously -- moves the primary to the Tuesday following whenever the New Hampshire primary is held (i.e., currently placing it on January 29). "With an earlier Presidential primary, Florida will now take its rightful place near the front of the line in determining the next leader of the free world," said Governor Charlie Crist (R), who vowed to sign the bill. The RNC says they will strip the Sunshine State's delegate total by at least half. The DNC says they will strip the state of nearly all delegates, refusing to recognize any delegates awarded in a pre-February 5 primary. Further, the DNC said it will disqualify any Florida delegates awarded to candidates who campaigned in the state's primary. Questions for the DNC: What defines "campaigning" in Florida for the primary, and what date defines the start of "campaigning for the primary"? The same bill that advanced the primary date also bans the use of touch screen electronic voting machines in the state by 2012 and provides immediate funding for new scanner voting machines which use paper ballots in time for the 2008 election.
UNITY 08: Talk about an event seemingly staged to provoke political whispers and media attention. NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (R-NY) and US Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) were spotted dining together this week, according to MSNBC. I wrote back in May 2006 -- when Unity08 was first unveiled -- that I believed the group was a front for Bloomberg (and later wrote I saw a Bloomberg-Hagel or Hagel-Bloomberg ticket coming out of the Unity08 movement). I believe that to be true even more so today.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.04.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (24)
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
AN EDITORIAL. As a Florida voter, I applaud my state's move to advance our Presidential primary to January 29 (or earlier). I'm tired of casting meaningless Presidential primary ballots long after the handful of key earlier states have already decided the nomination. I'm tired of having a primary in which the anointed nominee wins 85% against Lyndon LaRouche and the last remaining hopeless hopeful. I want our state to be pandered to by the frontrunners, just like they do in Iowa, as they suddenly discover us and announce their enthusiastic support for federal subsidies for some new orange and sawgrass-based alternative fuel source (or whatever). Does it mean we lose nearly all of our delegates for 2008? Yeah, but 99.999% of Floridians won't care. And neither will McCain, Obama, Romney, Clinton and the others who don't want to risk national TV headlines about "losing" the Florida primary just one week before roughly 30 other states cast ballots on February 5. Further, Florida is doing a long-term favor to the voters of the 46 states not granted special early privileges by the two major parties with their fixed schedule. Let's hope Florida's brash move permanently destroys the Iowa and New Hampshire lock on "first-in-the-nation" status. Starting in 2012, let's come up with a fairer method of rotating which states get to hold primaries in what order. Perhaps a series of 4-7 regional primaries, each held 3-4 weeks apart ... or maybe the primaries could be chosen by random draw ... or have states grouped into 4-5 primary clusters based upon size (smallest states in the first group, the largest states in the last group) to guarantee the nominee cannot secure the number of delegates needed to win the nomination until the final group votes. There is nothing magical, sacred or oracle-like about Iowa and New Hampshire. Anything has to be better than our current system. My state may lose nearly all of our 2008 convention delegates by refusing to genuflect before the bipartisan altar of corn and granite -- but we'll bring about the end of the unfair schedule forced upon us by the strongarm tactics of the DNC and RNC.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.04.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (5)
WANNA TRADE?
I'm interested in building up my collection of Canadian campaign buttons. If you've got Canadian political buttons to trade (both federal and provincial), \I'm interesting in swapping with you (and will also trade your Canadian buttons for some of my great US pins). Please drop me a note! Also interested in buying Canadian pins, if you're not interested in trading.
THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.
NORTHUP ATTACKS; OBAMA UNFRIENDLY; RENZI GETS IN DEEPER; HICK CRUISES.
KENTUCKY: Former Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) is on the air with a very harsh TV attack spot blasting incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher (R). "29 members of Fletcher's administration indicted. Eighty-five counts, felonies. Fletcher pardons them all. The Governor, himself, takes the Fifth and is indicted," says the fake-ad-within-the-ad that Northup says the Dems will certainly use to win in November if Fletcher wins the GOP nomination later this month.
OBAMA: It was certainly understandable -- from a political strategy and message control standpoint -- for US Senator Barack Obama's campaign to muscle volunteer supporter Joe Anthony out of the way with the grassroots MySpace page he created on his own two years to encourage Obama to run. Anthony's page had signed up an impressive network of over 160,000 Obama "friends" over those two years. Even though Anthony gave Obama's campaign direct editing access to the site and message veto power, they ultimately wanted total control. The campaign appealed to MySpace.com, who agreed to oust Anthony and give the site to Obama (although they agreed that Anthony still owns the network listing of 160,000 people). Maybe a smart move from purely a control perspective -- but definitely a very uncool way to handle an enthusiastic supporter who did a lot to help Obama. TechPresident.com has the whole story.
ILLINOIS: The race to replace retiring Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D) is already getting crowded -- and the filing deadline is still over seven months away for this very safe Dem seat. Chicago City Aldermen Manny Flores and Ricardo Munoz, and Cook County Commissioner Roberto Moldonado are already running, and others are still looking at it.
DENVER: Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) cruised to an easy re-election win on Tuesday, defeating public works employee Danny Lopez by a lopsided vote of 87% to 13%. The brew pub founder-turned-politician is one of the most popular elected officials in the state.
RENZI: Congressman Rick Renzi (R-AZ) was already reeling from allegations last month he is the target of a major FBI corruption probe. The bad news gets worse for Renzi, according to the Arizona Republic, as newly released federal documents show he last year paid a $25,000 fine to the Federal Elections Commission for underreporting money to his congressional campaign. On top of that, Renzi told the FEC he paid almost $324,000 in back taxes to the IRS to settle related charges that his businesses improperly financed his 2002 House campaign. He apparently used proof of his IRS penalty payment to negotiate a lower FEC fine. Renzi says he has no plans to resign, although GOP leaders are reportedly pressing him to do so. In related news, attorney Ellen Simon (D) -- who narrowly lost to Renzi last year -- filed paperwork this week to run again in 2008.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.03.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (821)
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.03.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (30)
WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
IRAQ TIMELINE FIGHT; FLETCHER, LUNSFORD LEAD IN KY GOV RACE; MORE POLLS.
SHOWDOWN ACCOMPLISHED: The Congress last week passed the $124 billion wartime spending bill requested by President Bush -- but included the withdrawal timeline the White House opposed. And, as expected, the President vetoed the bill Tuesday evening. While both sides are currently resisting any movement from their stated positions, various media sources report both sides will discuss possible compromises. The reason: some Dems are waivering on requiring the timeline provision, while some Republicans who supported the President's hardline stance actually support a timeline and want to see withdrawals begin soon. Thus, both sides know there is some softness on their respective sides. Will there be any compromise? My prediction: the Dems lose their nerve and fold before the President folds. Stay tuned.
KENTUCKY: With just three weeks left, anew WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll gives us a snapshot of the upcoming gubernatorial primaries. On the GOP side, embattled incumbent Ernie Fletcher is leading former Congresswoman Anne Northup by a vote of 46% to 34%, with wealthy businessman Billy Harper trailing far behind at 14%. Fletcher, in fact, looks better positioned today to win renomination than he did a few months ago. On the Democratic side, multimillionaire health care executive Bruce Lunsford now leads with 29%, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear had 23%, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry had 18%, State House Speaker Jody Richard is at 9%, State Treasurer Jonathan Miller has 7%, liberal attorney Gatewood Galbraith is at 6%, and demolition contractor Otis Hensley is at 1%. If no candidate gets 40% of the vote, the top two advance to a June 26 run-off.
PHILADELPHIA: There are only two weeks until the primary in the open race for Philadelphia Mayor, and the Democratic contest has narrowed into a virtual tie. The numbers: Deputy Mayor Tom Knox - 29%, City Councilman Michael Nutter - 27%, Congressman Chaka Fattah - 18%, Congressman Bob Brady - 11%, and State Representative Dwight Evans - 9%. Nutter clearly has momentum, as he is up 13 points since the last poll two weeks ago, while Knox has dropped by 3 points. It also looks like Fattah and Brady will be staying in Congress. Based on city's voting history, the winner of the Dem primary is heavily favored to win the general election to replace term-limited Mayor John Street (D).
IOWA: The latest American Research Group poll of likely caucus-goers shows John Edwards and John McCain leading in their respective contests. The Dems: Edwards - 27%, Hillary Clinton - 23%, Barack Obama - 19%, Joe Biden - 6%, Bill Richardson - 5%, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich tied with 2% each. The GOP: McCain - 26%, Rudy Giuliani - 19%, Mitt Romney - 14%, Fred Thompson - 13%, Newt Gingrich - 8%, Mike Huckabee and Tom Tancredo tied with 2% apiece, and everyone else each at 1% or less.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: A new American Research Group poll of likely primary voters shows Hillary Clinton leading the Dem primary field in New Hampshire by a comfortable margin -- and Obama losing ground. The numbers: Clinton - 37%, Edwards - 26%, Obama - 14%, Richardson - 3%, Biden and Kucinich tied with 2% apiece, and Dodd at 1%. On the GOP side, McCain leads Romney by a 29% to 24% vote. Giuliani was third with 17%, followed by Fred Thompson at 7%, Gingrich at 4%, and everyone else each at 1% or less.
SOUTH CAROLINA: ARG is also out with a South Carolina poll. Again the early leaders are Clinton and McCain. The Dems: Clinton - 26%, Obama - 24%, Edwards - 18%, Biden and Kucinich tied with 3% apiece, and all others at 1% or less. The GOP: McCain - 36%, Giualiani - 23%, Fred Thompson - 10%, Romney and Gingrich tied with 6% each, Huckabee - 2%, and all others at 1% or less.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.02.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (867)
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.02.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (45)
TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
ROMNEY'S OSAMA FALLOUT; THOMPSON EDGES FORWARD; JOE SEES INDY MOVEMENT RISING.
ROMNEY: In an interview with the AP, Mitt Romney (R) said the US would see only "a very insignificant increase in safety" if al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was captured or killed. "It's not worth moving heaven and earth spending billions of dollars just trying to catch one person," said Romney. Instead, Romney said he supports "a broader strategy" to defeat Islamic radicalism. "It takes a degree of naiveté to think [bin Laden is] not an element in the struggle against radical Islam," responded John McCain. "Governor Romney believes that the terrorism threat posed by radical jihadists is larger than only one person," reaffirmed Romney's spokesman.
THOMPSON: Former US Senator and actor Fred Thompson (R) still hasn't made a final decision on running for President, but he continues to edge closer to running. According to The Politico, Thompson's political advisers are already interviewing potential campaign managers and laying the groundwork to make it possible for a late entry campaign. According to the newspaper, Thompson -- if he runs -- is looking to announce during the Summer, likely in June or July. Thompson also is interested in using the Internet and a limited number of large rally-type events as a way of avoiding the traditional, full-time, retail-style campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early contest states used by all the other hopefuls. Thompson wants to run "a low-impact presidential campaign," reported the newspaper. "You show up, you're accessible, but you don't have to go to every county seat several times," said one Thompson adviser. "He doesn't have to go diner to diner and church to church," said another adviser. Those comments seem to peg Thompson's attitude pretty accurately. "Going on the road for months at a time ... I wouldn't do that. I don't think it has to be done that way. I know people will expect that of everyone -- to run frenetically around for years -- and I don't do frenetic very well," Thompson told FOX News. In related news, Thompson said in a speech Friday that the US should help Iranians overthrow their government. "Many Iranians don't like their government, and I think we ought to capitalize on that. There is a chance they may mobilize themselves, and we need to assist them if that happens," Thompson told the AP.
P2008: US Senator Joe Lieberman (Ind.Dem-CT) said he sees a real opportunity for an Independent Presidential candidate to have a serious shot at winning in 2008 because of voter anger with the status quo. Speaking on Monday at an American Enterprise Institute forum, Lieberman said: "The fastest-growing political party in America today is no party ... People are registering as Independents because they're fed up with -- they don't see them in the two major parties and they're sick of the fury, the partisanship and instability. And I think if the two major parties don't hear this going into '08, there is a real chance of an Independent third-party candidacy. And watch out, if that happens." In case you're wondering, Lieberman again insisted he will not be an Independent candidate in 2008.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.01.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (717)
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
Happy May Day! Today was the original International Labor Day (or International Workers Day, depending upon the translation) -- the date selected by the international trade union movement in honor of the memory of Chicago's framed Haymarket martyrs -- but the date of the formal Labor Day in the US was later moved when this day become associated too closely with the Labor Day celebration around the globe by closely associated with socialist and communist parties.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 05.01.07 | Permalink | COMMENTS (42)
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