FOX GOP DEBATE; KY POLL; BLOOMBERG’S BILLION; MN SEN POLL; FALWELL; PHILLY RESULTS; MORE.
May 15th, 2007
WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.FOX GOP DEBATE; KY POLL; BLOOMBERG'S BILLION; MN SEN POLL; FALWELL; PHILLY RESULTS.
GOP PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE #2: First, the questions asked in the Fox News debate from South Carolina were certainly much better, tougher, and more direct than those poised in the previous debates this year. The candidates were actually called on the carpet and forced to give real answers. John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney all took early hits for jettisoning their previously moderate social views to gain conservative points in this race. Whatever points Ron Paul scored in the first debate as the lone anti-war GOP candidate were probably lost in this debate when he essentially said that US foreign policy provoked the 9/11 attacks. Plus, he gave Giuliani a moment to really shine on stage. Doctor Paul has clearly forgotten the key adage of the Hippocratic Oath: first, do no harm. True or not, Paul's comments will relegate him to a fringe GOP following or a third party run. Tom Tancredo was feistier tonight in his controversial immigration views. Jim Gilmore got in a few shots at the frontrunners, but he's still a non-entity in the race. Mike Huckabee took a hit for his record on taxes, but briefly won points for his John Edwards "beauty shop" line. Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter largely registered drab performances. Was Sam Brownback even there, because I cannot recall any memorable moments from him. The entire group -- except for McCain and Paul -- expressed support for using torture on suspected terrorists. Romney had the biggest pandering line, promising to not close the controversial military prison but instead said he would "double Guantanamo." My overall take, Giuliani and McCain tied for the win in this debate. Tancredo and Huckabee also had a pretty good night. Romney did okay, but some of the tougher questions seemed to inflict damage. Paul definitely inflicted the most damage on his own campaign.
KENTUCKY: A new WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll gives us a good snapshot of next week's gubernatorial primaries. On the GOP side, Governor Ernie Fletcher leads former Congresswoman Anne Northup by a vote of 44% to 34%, with wealthy businessman Billy Harper third with 14%. Fletcher has held the lead in all of the SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past two months. On the Democratic side, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear scored 32% and has moved ahead of the pack. Wealthy health care executive Bruce Lunsford is second with 23%, followed by former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry at 18%, State House Speaker Jody Richard at 12%, attorney Gatewood Galbraith at 5%, and businessman Otis Hensley at 1%. These numbers indicate a Beshear surge of 10-points and a Lunsford drop of 10-points since the last poll two weeks ago. A candidate must win at least 40% to avoid a June 26 run-off.
BLOOMBERG: According to a Washington Times report Tuesday, NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg "has told close associates he will make a third-party run if he thinks he can influence the national debate and has said he will spend up to $1 billion." According to the newspaper, both major parties are very worried about his looming candidacy. "Senior Republican officials -- including those supporting declared Republican presidential nomination contenders -- and several top Democrats told The Times they take the possibility of a Bloomberg candidacy as a serious threat in November 2008," reported the Times. To give you an idea of how a campaign budget of $1 billion would be the political equivalent of "shock and awe," Bush and Kerry spent a COMBINED total of $695.7 million in 2004. Think of how many TV spots you saw last time for Bush and Kerry. Now think about $1 billion spent on Independent ballot petition drives and mega-doses of advertising. Every channel for months will be MTV -- MikeTV, that is -- if Bloomberg really plans to spend $1 billion.
MINNESOTA: Independent polling on the US Senate race shows US Senator Norm Coleman (R) is still well positioned to win re-election. The latest Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon poll shows Coleman leads humorist Al Franken (DFL) by a 54% to 32% vote. Coleman leads wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi (DFL) by a 52% to 29% vote. Coleman's approval rating has dropped to 48%, which may be a warning flag for an incumbent that some electoral problems could be arise down the road.
JERRY FALWELL: "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all" ... and I've got absolutely nothing positive to say about him ... so, on to the next story.
PHILADELPHIA: As predicted in the closing polls, City Councilman Michael Nutter swept to a comfortable victory in the crowded Democratic primary for Philadelphia Mayor. Nutter, a political reform candidate who used a solid TV blitz in the final ten days, was viewed as a hopeless "also-ran" with little support just a month ago. Incumbent John Street (D) is term-limited. Nutter, interestingly, is a longtime foe of Mayor Street. Nutter won with 36%, followed by wealthy former Deputy Mayor Tom Knox at 25%, Congressmen Chaka Fattah and Bob Brady tied with 15% apiece, and State Representative Dwight Evans was fifth with 8%. Knox spent nearly $10 million of his own money on the contest, but saw Nutter's reformist message eclipse him in the final days. The city is reliably Democratic, so Nutter is now a safe bet to win in November. Chamber of Commerce executive and two-time failed congressional candidate Al Taubenberger is the GOP nominee.
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Your daily open thread.
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WANNA TRADE?
I'm interested in building up my collection of Canadian campaign buttons. If you've got Canadian political buttons to trade (both federal and provincial), I'm interesting in swapping with you (and will also trade your Canadian buttons for some of my great US pins). Please drop me a note! Also interested in buying Canadian pins, if you're not interested in trading.
TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
PHILLY VOTES; UDALL-SCHAFFER; DALLAS RUN-OFF; ED & RUDY; CANNON GETS PRIMARIED.
PHILADELPHIA: Voters go to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in the open race to replace term-limited Mayor John Street (D). With the city's heavy Democratic slant, the winner of the Dem primary is very likely to be the city's next Mayor. According to a new WCAU-TV/SurveyUSA poll, City Councilman Michael Nutter (D) appears heading to a comfortable victory. Nutter leads the field with 36%, followed by former Deputy Mayor Tom Knox at 25%, Congressman Chaka Fattah at 13%, Philly Democratic Chair and Congressman Bob Brady at 12%, and State Representative Dwight Evans at 6%. Nutter started the race near the back of the back, scoring only in the mid-single digits in indpendent polls just three months ago.
COLORADO: State Board of Education Member and former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) waffled in recent days about entering the open US Senate race -- first announcing two weeks ago he would run, then announcing days later he had not made any decision, then formally filing paperwork this week to run. "After considerable assessment, I've decided I'm going to begin putting a campaign together to run for the United States Senate," said Schaffer. In 2004, he lost the GOP primary for US Senate by a 20-point margin. This time Schaffer's prospects for winning the nomination look much better. Attorney General John Suthers and retired USAF General Bentley Rayburn immediately let Schaffer know they would not challenge him for the nomination. Schaffer thanked the two men, saying they "deferred their ambition to me." The NRCC had tried to recruit Suthers to run, believing his more centrist views made him more electable in November. Barring a total surprise opponent, Schaffer should cruise to the GOP nomination to replace retiring US Senator Wayne Allard (R). However -- as Schaffer comes from the arch-conservative wing of the party -- he likely will be an underdog to Congressman Mark Udall (D) in the general election.
DALLAS: Voters on Saturday narrowed the 11-candidate field for the open race for Dallas, Texas, Mayor to two men: businessman Tom Leppert and City Councilor Ed Oakley. The race is officially non-partisan, although Republicans are heavily backing Leppert and the Dems are backing Oakley. Leppert was first with 27%, followed by Oakley with 21%, City Councilor Don Hill at 14%, former City Councilor Max Wells had 12%, City Councilor Gary Griffith had 9%, and all others trailed behind. Hill, however, quickly endorsed Oakley in the June 16 run-off. If he wins, Oakley would be the first out gay Mayor of a major US city. Other major US cities have had gay mayors, but never one who acknowledged it while running for or serving in office.
GIULIANI: ... And speaking of former NYC Mayor Ed Koch (D), he told the New York Post he will campaign around the nation next year bashing his old rival Rudy Giuliani (R). "If I had to sum it up in a few minutes I would say he's a control freak -- and the control is over your life," says Koch. In 2004, Koch crossed party lines in the general election to campaign in support of President Bush before Jewish groups in key swing states. Koch said he plans to hit the campaign trail after Giuliani captures the GOP nomination. However, "if organizations asked me to come, I certainly would try in advance of that."
UTAH: Add Congressman Chris Cannon (R) to the list of incumbents facing serious primary opposition in 2008. Cannon has won a series of unimpressive primary renomination contests in recent years, frequently being attacked for being insufficiently conservative on immigration and trade issues. This time his announced primary candidates include former Juab County Prosecutor David Leavitt, wealthy businessman John Jacob, and Governor Huntsman Chief of Staff Jason Chaffetz. Chaffetz, a former BYU football player, recently stepped down from his state post to make the race. Leavitt is the bother of former Utah Governor and current US HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt. Jacob, Cannon's primary opponent in 2006, is an anti-immigration activist closely aligned with Congressman Tom Tancredo. Bombastic former Congressman Merrill Cook, a perennial candidate, is also looking at making a challenge. "The failings of Mr. Cannon are so evident, obviously there is going to be a number of challengers. All I can do is put my best foot forward and see if I'm the right messenger with the right message ... [Cannon] has not instituted good conservative practices," said Chaffetz to the Deseret News. Cannon said he welcomes a meaningful debate with his GOP challengers, but only if they don't use "a lot of exaggerations and distortions. In the last two cycles, we've had a lot of statements that weren't true." Cannon only had $82,000 in his campaign account as of the most recent reporting period. The CD-3 seat is safely Republican.
ROMNEY: The AP reports that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) is the wealthiest of the major party Presidential candidates. According to the report, Romney is worth between $190 million to $250 million. Romney's assets have been in a blind trust since he was elected Governor in 2002.
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