Archive for August 2nd, 2006
Continue Reading August 2nd, 2006
FRIDAY NEWS UPDATE.
TENNESSEE: SEVERAL HOT RACES IN THURSDAY’S PRIMARY.
No real surprises on primary day. Governor Phil Bredesen (D) won his primary with 90% of the vote. State Senator Jim Bryson won the Republican primary for Governor with 53% over six nominal opponents. In the open US Senate contest, wealthy former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker — the most moderate of the major GOP candidates — easily dispatched conservative former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. Corker won 50%, followed by Bryant at 35%, Hilleary at 14%, and businessman Tate Harrison at 1%. Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) cruised to an easily primary win with 82% over four minor opponents. Polls show Corker currently holds and advantage over Ford for the seat being vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R). There are also hot contests for two open Congressional seats: CD-1 (safe GOP) and CD-9 (safe DEM). Votes were slow at coming in from these contests, so I’ll update these results in the morning.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.04.06
BY THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT NUMBERS.
CONNECTICUT - US SENATE - DEM PRIMARY: Businessman Ned Lamont - 54%, US Senator Joe Lieberman - 41%. (Quinnipiac University).
IOWA - GOVERNOR: Secretary of State Chet Culver D) - 41%, Congressman Jim Nussle (R) - 38%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MASSACHUSETTS - GOVERNOR - DEM PRIMARY: Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick - 35%, venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli - 30%, Attorney General Tom Reilly - 27%. (WBZ-TV/SurveyUSA).
OREGON - GOVERNOR: Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) - 45%, former Portland School Board Member Ron Saxton (R) - 35%. (Rasmussen Reports).
PENNSYLVANIA - GOVERNOR: Governor Ed Rendell (D) - 50%, former pro football player Lyn Swann (R) - 40%. (Rasmussen Reports).
PENNSYLVANIA - US SENATE: State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) - 50%, US Senator Rick Santorum (R) - 39%. (Rasmussen Reports).
SOUTH DAKOTA - CONGRESS: Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D) - 60%, GOP activist Bruce Whalen (R) - 26%. (Sioux Falls Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon).
SOUTH DAKOTA - CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT - SAME SEX MARRIAGE BAN: For the Ban - 41%, Against the Ban - 49%. (Sioux Falls Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.04.06
TEXAS: “VOTE FOR ME … FOR A JOB I DON’T WANT … SO I CAN RESIGN AGAIN.”
The 5th Circuit US Court of Appeals dealt a major setback on Thursday to the Texas Republican Party’s plan to replace resigned US House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) on the November ballot. The court essentially found DeLay voluntarily withdrew from his race after winning the primary. They judges discounted his move to Virginia, noting his wife continued to reside in the couple’s homesteaded residence in Texas, and it was purely speculative as to where DeLay would be living on election day. Under Texas law, Republicans have a choice of either running DeLay again or going without any nominee on the ballot. Thus, the appellate ruling forces DeLay to now run for a job from which he already resigned in a state in which he said he no longer desires to reside. Look for the GOP to seek an appeal to the US Supreme Court, although election law experts now think DeLay stands virtually no chance of winning there before the November elections. In additional to being forced to seek reelection, DeLay still is facing money laundering and political corruption charges in an upcoming trial. Democrats are clearly gleeful, as former Congressman Nick Lampson (D) must now be rated the favorite to win the CD-22 seat.
Writer: Ben Meyers - 08.04.06 6a’);
FREE SPEECH ZONE: A BIT OF EDITORIALIZING BY RON.
Count me among those urging Democratic primary voters in Connecticut — the state of my birth — to vote for wealthy businessman and peace activist Ned Lamont on Tuesday. Incumbent US Senator Joe Lieberman is smart and witty, and usually reflects Democratic ideals in most of his votes. Yet, on the key defining issue of this decade, he has become a pro-Iraq War lackey for the Bush Administration. Democrats who passionately believe in progressive ideals understand we need a watchdog, not a GOP lapdog, in the seat. So, Joe, thank you for your years of dedicated service to our nation and our party. But, with your current unbending hawkish views, your political sun has set. The words of Oliver Cromwell — spoken to the British Parliament in 1653 — well summarize my thoughts towards Senator Lieberman: “You have sat too long for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!” On Tuesday, vote for Ned Lamont for Connecticut’s US Senator.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.04.06
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here’s my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in — feel free to add a sticker and brochure — and I’ll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily “thank you” note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. TODAY’S THANKS GO TO: farmer and liberal activist Jean Hay Bright, Democrat for US Senator in Maine.
WRITERS WANTED: YUP, YOU CAN WRITE FOR POLITICS1.
It doesn’t pay much (well, it pays nothing), but its a lot of fun. Click here to learn more about writing for Politics1.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.04.06
Continue Reading August 2nd, 2006
THURSDAY NEWS UPDATE.
TENNESSEE: SEVERAL HOT RACES IN THURSDAY’S PRIMARY.
As always, Tennessee voters will see a crowded primary ballot this year. Governor Phil Bredesen (D) and State Senator Jim Bryson (R) will easily win their respective gubernatorial primaries. Bredesen is a safe bet to win big in November. In the open US Senate contest, wealthy former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker — who styles himself as a GOP centrist in the mold of former US Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker — is expected the capture the Republican nomination. GOP conservatives are split between former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, splitting the anti-Corker vote. Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) will easily defeat his four minor opponents. There are also hot contests for two open Congressional seats: CD-1 (safe GOP) and CD-9 (safe DEM). Thirteen Republicans are facing-off for the CD-1 seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Bill Jenkins (R). Of the large pack, the frontrunners are State Representative David Davis, wealthy businessman Richard Roberts, Johnson City Commissioner Phil Roe and Sullivan County Executive Richard Venable. Any of these four could win — and will likely do so with less than 25% of the primary vote. In CD-9 — a largely African-American dominated district currently held by Ford — the racial mathematics related to the fourteen candidates appears likely to determine the winner. State Senator Steve Cohen is the only white candidate in the race, and will certainly benefit by the 13-way split of the black vote by his primary opponents. Local black leaders pleaded with the candidates to coalesce behind one or two black candidates, but it never happened. Although a distant cousin of Ford is running in the primary, the Ford machine seems split between airline executive and former Ford campaign manager Nikki Tinker (endorsed by EMILY’s List) and attorney Ed Stanton. The largest newspaper in the district, the Memphis Commercial Appeal, endorsed Cohen. Look for Cohen and Tinker to place ahead of the field, with Cohen likely to squeak out a narrow victory with less than 20% of the vote. In an interesting twist, the Congressman’s brother — Jake — also filed for the seat as an Independent.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.03.06
BY THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT NUMBERS.
GEORGIA - CONGRESS - CD-4 - DEM RUN-OFF: DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson - 49%, Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney - 34%. (Insider Advantage-R).
MAINE - GOVERNOR: Governor Janet Napolitano (D) - 52%, businessman Don Goldwater (R) - 37%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MAINE - US SENATE: US Senator Jon Kyl (R) - 53%, former State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson (D) - 34%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MICHIGAN - GOVERNOR: Businessman Dick DeVos (R) - 48%, Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) - 44%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MAINE - GOVERNOR: Governor John Baldacci (D) - 43%, State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) - 37%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MAINE - US SENATE: US Senator Olympia Snowe (R) - 69%, liberal activist Jean Hay Bright (D) - 22%. (Rasmussen Reports).
NEVADA - US SENATE: US Senator John Ensign (R) - 46%, investment consultant Jack Carter (D) - 39%. (Rasmussen Reports).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Jeb Bradley (R) - 55%, State House Minority Leader Jim Craig (D) - 27%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Bradley (R) - 58%, Democratic activist Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 24%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Charlie Bass (R) - 53%, attorney Paul Hodes (D) - 25%. (University of New Hampshire).
TENNESSEE - US SENATE - GOP PRIMARY: Bob Corker - 45%, Ed Bryant - 31%, Van Hilleary - 20%, Tate Harrison - 1%. (WBIR-TV/SurveyUSA).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.03.06
CONGRESS: IRAQ WAR HITS HOME WITH TWO LAWMAKER FAMILIES.
Over the weekend in Iraq’s Al Anbar province, Marine Corporal Phillip Baucus — nephew of US Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) — was killed in combat operations. Corporal Baucus is the first relative of a member of Congress to be killed in the Iraq War. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid informed the Senate during the debate of a defense spending bill today, after the information was released by Senator Baucus. The death was met by condolences and recognition from both sides of the aisle. In related news, the 18-year-old son of US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) volunteered for service in the Marine Corps. Jimmy McCain will enter boot camp in September and could be in Iraq as soon as next summer, according to Time magazine. “I’m obviously proud of my son, but also understandably a bit nervous,” said Senator McCain. Jimmy McCain is carrying on a family tradition, as his father was a decorated pilot and POW from the Vietnam War, and his grandfather was a Navy Admiral.
Writer: Ben Meyers - 08.03.06
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
Whatever.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.03.06
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here’s my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in — feel free to add a sticker and brochure — and I’ll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily “thank you” note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. TODAY’S THANKS GO TO: State Claims Commissioner Vance Cheek Jr., Republican for Congress in Tennessee’s CD-1.
August 2nd, 2006
One of the advantages of travel is the opportunity to read. Books don’t require batteries or much space. I recently got a chance to read Freakonomics
by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner. The book is a collection of (mostly) unrelated questions grouped into chapters by their statistical similarity, so you get things like a history of the Klu Klux Klan mixed with biases in home sales. The thread for all of the studies is this: Conventional wisdom is conceived from biased self-interest and rarely reflects what actually happens in the world.
The two most controversial ideas in Freakonomics are:
- Abortions are most responsible for reduction in crime
- Parents have no effect on improving their kids’ education
This isn’t an argument to further politicize abortion by making it a crime control policy, or to save resources on schools and parent support by accepting that test scores are predetermined by social class. Rather, it is an opportunity to look at issues like crime and education from a new perspective — under the dispassionate lens of Levitt’s economics — and find the heart of some misconceived problems.
The Freakonomy of crime may credit Roe v. Wade with trimming the 1990s population of a bunch of high-risk youth, but that really just underscores the fact that crime is closely tied to socio-economic circumstance and early childhood experiences lacking unconditional love and support. Education has such a focus on testing outcome today that its role as a means of social mobility is completely undercut. Perhaps the message in Levitt’s numbers is not “Parents don’t matter” but rather “Parents should matter more.”
For a more detailed review of Freakonomics, read my blog.
Continue Reading August 2nd, 2006
WEDNESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
KANSAS: SEBELIUS-BARNETT GOV RACE SET FOR NOVEMBER.
Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) was unopposed for renomination in Tuesday’s primary. On the Republican side, conservative State Senator Jim Barnett won the seven-candidate contest with 36%. His nearest opponent, social conservative activist Ken Canfield, was second with 26%. Sebelius is strongly favored to defeat the GOP nominee in November. GOP centrist Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh easily fended off a primary challenge from State Senator Kay O’Connor, a Religious Right conservative who in 2001 infamously proclaimed her opposition to the 19th Amendment granting women the right to vote. Another GOP moderate, State Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger also survived a competitive primary challenge by Religious Right conservative State Representative Eric Carter. In the ongoing evolution/creationism fight, continues to play an important role in Kansas politics. Of the three conservative State Board of Education members who supported anti-evolution standards, two appeared headed to primary wins. In the GOP primary in CD-3, wealthy banker Chuck Ahner easily defeated State Representative Scott Schwab and two others. Ahner will be an underdog against popular conservative Congressman Dennis Moore (D) in November, despite the solid GOP registration advantage in the district.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’080206a’);
BY THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT NUMBERS.
COLORADO - CONGRESS - CD-7 - DEM PRIMARY: Former State Senator Ed Perlmutter - 51%, former State Representative Peggy Lamm - 31%, attorney Herb Rubenstein - 10%. (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA).
KANSAS - GOVERNOR: Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) - 51%, State Senator Jim Barnett (R) - 34%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MAINE - GOVERNOR: Governor John Baldacci (D) - 42%, State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) - 25%, State Representative Barbara Merrill (Independent) - 3%, radio talk show host Pat LaMarche (Green) - 3%. (Strategic Marketing).
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 57%, State Representative Darlene Curl (R) - 11%, peace activist Dexter Kamilewicz (Independent) - 3%. (Strategic Marketing).
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Mike Michaud (D) - 62%, medical technician Scott D’Amboise (R) - 14%. (Strategic Marketing).
SOUTH DAKOTA - GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Rounds (R) - 56%, former State Representative Jack Billion (D) - 27%. (Sioux Falls Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon).
WASHINGTON - US SENATE: US Senator Maria Cantwell (D) - 48%, insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) - 37%. (Rasmussen Reports).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.02.06
PENNSYLVANIA: STATE GOP CHAIR PRAISES MURTHA.
State GOP Chair Robert Gleason has come under fire from conservative activists for some comments he made — past and present — about Congressman Jack Murtha (D-PA). Gleason apparently voted for Murtha in the past — including when Gleason was Cambria County Republican Chair. Gleason explained in an interview with the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat: “I cannot deny that Murtha has done a wonderful job for our region. He’s brought home the bacon. If that’s how you want to judge a Congressman, or any elected official, he gets five stars. I think everything was pretty positive until the past few months, when he started attacking the President and the war and saying things that weren’t really positive as far as the troops were concerned.” Franklin and Marshall University political science professor Terry Madonna found Gleason’s comments odd: “When you’re a state chairman, you’re expected to not say nice things about the other side.” However, despite the outcry from some conservatives in the party, the centrist Gleason appears likely to survive the demands for his resignation.
Writer: Julian Stolz - 08.02.06
OKLAHOMA: EX-FOES FALLING IN LINE BEHIND FALLIN IN CD-5 OPEN SEAT.
Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin placed first in last week’s six-candidate GOP primary with 35%. Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett was second with 24%, and will face Fallin in the August 22 run-off. In a major boost for Fallin, CQ reports she secured the endorsements of all four other candidates eliminated in the primary. Combined, they collected 41% of the primary vote. The four seemed resentful of Cornett throughout the primary campaign, so the news isn’t a total surprise. However, if gives Fallin significant momentum heading into the run-off.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 08.02.06
PENNSYLVANIA: SANTORUM FUNDED GREEN NOMINEE FOR US SENATE.
Green Party State Chair Carl Romanelli — the party’s nominee for US Senator Rick Santorum’s (R) — acknowledged receiving significant financial aid from the GOP in qualifying for the ballot. The AP reports Romanelli received $66,000 from Santorum donors to support his signature gathering effort. As a result of GOP support, Romanelli will submit far more than the 67,070 signatures required under Pennsylvania law. Romanelli did not deny receiving support from the GOP, stating “I have friends in all political parties. It’s just that my Republican friends are more confident about standing with me than my Democratic friends. And as a group, my Republican friends are a little better off.” Santorum also admitted his desire to see Romanelli on the ballot. “This is politics,” Santorum said. “It’s no surprise when you’re an incumbent, it helps to have more people on the ballot.” Santorum — who trails State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) by double digits in independent polls — also acknowledged encouraging his GOP campaign staff and volunteers to help with the signature gathering effort.
Writer: Dustin McKissen - 08.02.06
P2008: RICHARDSON POSITIONS HIMSELF AS FOREIGN POLICY HAWK.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D), who is preparing to make a run for President in 2008, is attempting to portray himself firmly as a foreign affairs hawk wing. The AP reported today that Richardson, a former U.N. Ambassador, stated his firm support for Israel, as well as urged more United States involvement. According to Richardson, “If we would have had a permanent Middle East envoy in the region, we would have been in a better position to disarm Hezbollah and protect Israel.” Richardson went on to say that an international peacekeeping force would help end the violence. The recent placement of Nevada’s caucuses ahead of the New Hampshire primary may help the Latino-descent Governor by giving him an early boost to his campaign if he were to win the state’s contest. With the race likely to be filled with an unprecedented number of candidates, it will be an important part of every candidate’s strategy to differentiate themselves from the others. Richardson’s assertion of these views may start to do that.
Posted by Ben Meyers - 08.02.06
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
The winner of the award for worst titled campaign press release (possibly ever) is Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R-FL). In response to the strange story we detailed yesterday about state GOP leaders savagely bashing her US Senate candidacy in a private letter (leaked to the AP), Harris issued a bizarre press release Tuesday entitled: “Letter Not Applicable Monday.” In fact, the press release obtusely explained “a previous letter unethically leaked in Monday’s news is not applicable to current party beliefs.” All of this prompts one question: Is there anyone sane working on the Harris campaign?
Posted by Ron Gunzburger -08.02.06′);
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here’s my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in — feel free to add a sticker and brochure — and I’ll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily “thank you” note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. TODAY’S THANKS GO TO: former State Representative and attorney Joe Courtney, Democrat for Congress in Connecticut’s CD-2.
