Nine new polls (FL, IL, KS, MN, MO, OH)
Continue Reading September 3rd, 2006
TUESDAY NEWS UPDATE.
FLORIDA: PRIMARY PREVIEW.
Voters go to the polls in Florida on to cast primary ballots in several competitive races. In the contest to replace term-limited Governor Jeb Bush (R), both parties have hot races. On the GOP side, Attorney General Charlie Crist grabbed a surprisingly early lead over State CFO Tom Gallagher and never looked back. The GOP affair largely consisted of Gallagher repeatedly attacking Crist as “pro-choice … for amnesty for illegal aliens … for civil unions for gays … [and] for tax hikes.” Crist — who does in fact support civil unions, “a path to amnesty” for many illegal aliens, and opposes overturning Roe v. Wade — has countered with TV spots describing himself as a “NRA-endorsed, positivie, pro-life, Ronald Reagan Republican.” Crist also hit Gallagher as a former pro-choice GOP centrist who entirely reinvented himself for his third primary run for Governor. Although Gallagher picked up endorsements from lots of prominent Religious Right activists, look for Crist to win by at least 10 points. By contrast, the Democratic primary was a nearly invisible affair until the last few weeks. That’s when State Senator Rod Smith — with nearly $2 million in TV assistantce from 527-groups controlled by the “Big Sugar” Everglades polluters — started blasting away at Congressman Jim Davis. Smith attacked Davis for missing key votes, failing to show up in July to cast a vote for a House resolution condemning Hezbollah, and for voting against a restitution package for two black men who had been railroaded and sent to death row on murder charges before being released and vindicated many years later. Polls show a close race, but Davis seems able to fend off the barrage and win by several points. Governor Race Rating: Leans GOP. In the GOP race for US Senate, Congresswoman Katherine Harris will win the nomination despite possibly setting an all-time record for most gaffes committed in a single campaign. Democrats will rejoice, because it places US Senator Bill Nelson in the “Safe DEM” category and places Harris as the top name on all November ballots statewide. The Democratic primary for Davis’s open CD-11 seat will largely decide the November winner, as the seat skews heavily Dem. Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor — the daughter of 2004 US Senate nominee Betty Castor (D) — appears to hold a commanding lead in CD-11 over her four primary opponents. In CD-13 — the race for Harris’ House seat — wealthy auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) is breaking records by spoending over $4.1 million in the primary. Banker Tramm Hudson isn’t exactly a pauper, either, as he’s spent over $1.1 million thus far in the GOP primary. State Representatives Donna Clarke and Nancy Detert and former State Representative Mark Flanagan are also competing in the primary. Buchanan’s obscene level of spending should help him secure a plurality victory. Two Democrats — banker Christine Jennings and attorney Jan Schneider — are also in a hot primary fight in CD-13. Other races to watch include the Dem primary in CD-8 and the GOP primary in CD-9 (where State Representative Gus Bilirakis moves one step closer to his Dad’s open seat).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.05.06 | Permalink | postCount(’090506a’);
CONGRESS: LATEST GOP WAR CRITIC IS A SURPRISE.
You can add another Republican Member of Congress to the pool of those who have parted ways with the Bush Administration on the Iraq War … and we’re not talking about another GOP centrist like Chris Shays or Nancy Johnson running in a swing district. The latest critic is a longtime Bush ally from a generally Republican district: Congressman Pat Tiberi (R-OH). Here is what Tiberi said to the Columbus Dispatch: “I can’t defend how the President laid out the need for [going to war in Iraq]. I don’t support Rumsfeld … If I were President, he would not be the Defense Secretary.” However, he does not support setting a firm timeline for a US withdrawal. Tiberi also said he now believe the Bush Administration’s secret domestic eavesdropping program “might have” been illegal. Another Ohio incumbent in a tough race — Congresswoman Deb Pryce (R) — is also distancing herself from the President. Last year she was an ardent supporter of Bush’s plan to create private investment accounts as part of Social Security. According to the Dispatch, Pryce has totally reversed her position and describes her former support for privatization as “ancient history.” The important question to ponder about all these candidates: How much of this purported newly discovered “independence” from the Administration will last beyond the November elections?
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.05.06 | Permalink | postCount(’090506b’);
PITTSBURGH: MAYOR BOB O’CONNOR DIES AFTER BRIEF ILLNESS.
Pittsburgh Mayor Bob O’Connor (D), 61, lost his two-month battle with brain cancer on Friday. His death came only nine months into his four-year mayoral term. O’Connor was credited with starting to turn around a city which has been on the brink of financial collapse. O’Connor was elected Mayor in 2005, on his third run for the job. He was a member of the Pittsburgh City Council from 1992-2003 and was Council President in 1998-2003. City Council President Luke Ravenstahl was sworn in as Mayor on Saturday. At age 26, Ravenstahl will be Pittsburgh’s youngest mayor ever — and also one of the youngest mayors of any large US city. Revenstahl has pledged to continue O’Connor policies and goals during his term. There is little doubt that a legal fight will break out over the length of Ravensthal’s term. The city’s Legal Department issued an opinion that Ravensthal may hold office for the rest of the four-year term until 2009. Others argue a special election must be held in 2007 for final two years of the term..
Writers: Bradley Minoski and Mike Baker - 09.05.06 | Permalink | postCount(’090506c’);
GUAM: GOV & A.G. PRIMARY RESULTS.
Guam Governor Felix Camacho easily turned back a GOP primary challenge on Saturday from his own 2002 runningmate. Camacho defeated Lieutenant Governor Kaleo Moylan by a vote of 64% to 36%. In the Democratic primary, former US Congressman Robert Underwood defeated former Governor Carl Gutierrez by a vote of 53% to 47%. Interestingly, there were a total of just 7,700 votes cast in the GOP primary versus 25,000 in the Democratic contest. The primary results set up a rematch of the close Camacho-Underwood gubernatorial race from 2002. (And, FYI, check out the Underwood and Camacho campaign websites, as both are unexpectedly better than many sites from major mainland candidates with lots more money to spend.) In the non-partisan race for Attorney General, incumbent Douglas Moylan placed third and was eliminated from the November run-off by Acting Chief Prosecutor Alicia Limtiaco and Civil Service Commission Executive Director Vern Perez.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.05.06 | Permalink | postCount(’090506d’);
CONGRESS: CAMPAIGN SHORT TAKES.
TEXAS: Make up your friggin’ mind, already. Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez launched his campaign just over a week ago against Congressman Henry Bonilla (R) for the newly redrawn CD-23 special election in November. Then he quit the race last Wednesday “for personal reasons.” Then, on Friday afternoon, Rodriguez … umm … un-quit and said he’s still running because people “rallied” behind him.
NEVADA: After a one day hearing, State District Judge Bill Maddox “said there was no evidence election officials in Washoe County committed malfeasance when some voting locations opened late because polling workers didn’t show up,” the AP reported. With that, the judge denied State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle’s (R) bid for a re-vote in the open CD-2 contest. Thus, Secretary of State Dean Heller — who defeated Angle by 421 votes two weeks ago — is now the undisputed GOP nominee.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.05.06 | Permalink | postCount(’090506e’);
LABOR DAY NEWS UPDATE.
BY THE NUMBERS: LATEST INDEPENDENT NUMBERS.
FLORIDA - GOVERNOR - DEM PRIMARY: Congressman Jim Davis - 34%, State Senator Rod Smith - 29%, retired teacher Carol Castagnero - 5%, businessman Glenn Burkett - 3%, attorney John Crotty - 2%. (Miami Herald/Zogby).
FLORIDA - GOVERNOR - GOP PRIMARY: Attorney General Charlie Crist - 59%, State CFO Tom Gallagher - 30%. (Miami Herald/Zogby).
FLORIDA - US SENATE - GOP PRIMARY: Congresswoman Katherine Harris - 39%, attorney Will McBride - 23%, retired Navy Admiral LeRoy Collins Jr. - 13%, developer Peter Monroe - 6%. (Miami Herald/Zogby).
ILLINOIS - GOVERNOR: Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) - 47%, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R) - 39%, attorney Rich Whitney (Green) - 2%. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000).
KANSAS - GOVERNOR: Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) - 48%, State Senator Jim Barnett (R) - 37%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MINNESOTA - GOVERNOR: Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) - 46%, Attorney General Mike Hatch (D) - 36%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MINNESOTA - US SENATE: Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) - 47%, Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) - 40%. (Rasmussen Reports).
MISSOURI - US SENATE: State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) - 47%, US Senator Jim Talent (R) - 46%. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research 2000).
OHIO - US SENATE: Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) - 46%, US Senator Mike DeWine (R) - 40%. (USA Today/Gallup).
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 09.04.06
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
You know what to do.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger