October 31st, 2006
My life was disrupted this weekend by a funeral, the second loss of a father within my circle of friends. Since this was also a weekend I was counting on going out into the community to put signs on shop windows and chat up the camp, it was nice to get some help in this from a couple of other IU students.
My goal for this week — in addition to writing a paper due Thursday — is to expand that base of promotional support, and to get some local media to write a story about it. Email just doesn’t cut it, convenient as it is. I’m going to have to use the phone and my feet.
Continue Reading October 31st, 2006
TUESDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 1.
Over the next several days, in lieu of the normal news postings, I’ll be making these state-by-state election forecasts that have been a regular feature on Politics1 since the site’s launch during the 1998 election cycle. Some years I was highly accurate in calling these federal and gubernatorial contests (2000 and 2004, in particular). Then again, I’ve been way off the mark once in a while, too (2002). Also important to note: these are predictions based upon a combination of analyzing all the data on the various contests, and then mixing in a healthy dose of my political gut instincts gained from having worked as a professional campaign consultant on over 130 races since the mid-1980s. They are not, however, endorsements — nor are they my hopes as to who I would like to see win these races.
ALABAMA:
GOVERNOR: If a week can be a lifetime in politics, then Governor Bob Riley (R) is very fortunate that his abysmal approval ratings of a 1-2 years ago are now ancient history. Riley earned the high negatives after his unsuccessful attempt to push through the highest tax hike in state history. Ousted State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy “The Ten Commandments Judge” Moore — a hero to the most hardcore of Religious Right activists — challenged Riley in the primary. After what initially looked to be a tough primary, Riley rebounded strongly and defeated Moore by a wide margin. Meanwhile, Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley (D) cruised to an equally strong primary win over former Governor Don Siegelman. Although the Riley-Baxley matchup once looked competitive, Riley has held a solid lead in the polls for months. Don’t look for any upset here, as Riley will score a comfortable victory.
US HOUSE: Democrats have credible challengers who are running spirited campaigns in CD-1 and CD-3, but I don’t see any House incumbents losing in Alabama.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’AL06′);
ALASKA:
GOVERNOR: Unpopular Governor Frank Murkowski (R) — with the second lowest approval ratings in the nation — was routed in his primary. Embarrassingly, Murkowski placed a distant third in the vote. Former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin (R), who lost a 2002 race for Lieutenant Governor, scored an impressive primary victory. Palin is running as a political outsider, and has had considerable momentum since the primary. The Democratic nominee is former two-term Governor Tony Knowles, who lost a 2004 race for US Senator. Knowles was clearly the strongest possible candidate the Dems could have placed into the race, and he’s steadily narrowed the gap over the past month. Former Republican State Representative Andrew Halcro is running as an Independent, and touting himself as the only real conservative in the race. Both Palin and Knowles are political centrists. The final numbers will be fairly close, due to Halcro drawing votes that normally go to the GOP. However, Palin is a fresh, attractive candidate who will ride into office on the crest of the same anti-Murkowski wave that also helped her win the primary. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: Congressman Don Young (R) is safe and will get two more years to continue pushing his costly “bridge to nowhere” boondoggle. RESULT: NO CHANGE.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’AK06′);
ARIZONA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Janet Napolitano (D) will cruise to a landslide victory over Religious Right activist and attorney Len Munsil (R). RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Jon Kyl (R) has held the lead in the polls from the start. Wealthy businessman and former State Democratic Chair Jim Pederson (D) has run an aggressive campaign. From time to time, Pederson has even narrowed his deficit to the 6-10 point range. Conventional wisdom dictates that Kyl wins — and I agree he will, too, but by a very thin margin. However, it would not surprise me if the national wave is strong enough to give Pederson an upset win. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: The Democrats will register a surprisingly strong showing in the Arizona congressional races. CD-1: Congressman Rick Renzi (R) was hit in the closing month with news reports he is the subject of at least two preliminary federal corruption investigations. Wealthy attorney Ellen Simon is running an energetic campaign and is lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time. The combination of the national wave, along with Renzi’s own ethics problems, will help Simon score a very unexpected victory. CD-5: Conservative firebrand Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R) is being challenged by State Senator and former Democratic State Chair Harry Mitchell (D). Hayworth is another one of the Republican incumbents hit with extensive bad press due to his ties to disgraced former lobbyist and felon Jack Abramoff. Polls regularly show this contest as close. Mitchell will score an upset win. CD-8: Former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords (D) will score a third Dem gain in this open seat race. Former State Representative Randy Graf (R) is far too conservative for this swing district — so much so that even retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe (R) declined to endorse Graf after he won the crowded primary. Graf is an avowed acolyte of radical anti-immigration Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO). Giffords will win big. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’AZ06′);
ARKANSAS:
GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Huckabee (R) — gearing up for a 2008 Presidential run — is term-limited. Republicans initially had high hopes for Lieutenant Governor Win Rockefeller holding the seat. Sadly, Rockefeller became ill, withdrew from the race in late 2005 and died earlier this year. By default, that left Rockefeller’s primary opponent — former Congressman and former Drug Enforcement Administration head Asa Hutchinson — as the only real candidate for the GOP nomination. From the start, Hutchinson has trailed Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) in the polls by wide margins. Several independent polls have even placed the gap in the 20+ point range. I think Hutchinson’s deficit is less, probably in the 10-15 point range. Beebe has has run a safe campaign and will win by a comfortable margin. Democrats also appear poised here to sweep all of the other statewide offices this year. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: The most competitive House race is the CD-2 contest between Congressman Vic Snyder (D). and former State Economic Development Department official Andy Mayberry (R) — and Snyder will still win by a double-digit margin. All the other incumbents are safe, too. RESULTS: NO CHANGE.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’AR06′);
CALIFORNIA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has yet again transformed himself politically. Gone is the conservative, union-bashing “Governator” of 2005. Now he has retooled himself back into the moderate, socially liberal, consensus-builder Arnold of 2003. State Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) depleted his campaign dollars in his costly primary against State Controller Steve Westly, allowed the incumbent to be on the air with TV spots from months with virtually no response. The resourceful Schwarzenegger will defeat the hapless Angelides, despite the big advantage Democrats traditionally hold in California. The only question is who will be Governor next year: Arnold the moderate or Arnold the conservative? RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: Republicans failed to recruit a first-tier candidate to challenge US Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) this year. She’ll easily defeat former State Senator Dick Mountjoy (R) by a landslide margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Only a handful of the state’s 53 congressional districts appear to merit any attention. CD-4: Congressman John Dooliittle (R) is one of the top targets of federal prosecutors in the Abramoff corruption case that already resulted in several felony indictments against others on Capitol Hill. Democrats have a strong candidate in retired Air Force office Charlie Brown. He has done everything right and hammered home the Abramoff/corruption message for months. Unfortunately, the district is so heavily Republican that it would be nearly impossible for any Democrat to even come close here. Brown will come close — which is a big achievement — but I don’t think it will be close enough to oust Doolittle. CD-11: Congressman Dick Pombo (R) is also under an ethics cloud, giving Dems hope for an upset here. Wind turbine manufacturer Jerry McNerney unexpectedly won the Democratic primary, defeating a highly touted military veteran who was recruited into the race by the DCCC. McNerney’s win dampened the DCCC’s enthusiasm, but McNerney remains feisty and undeterred. Like CD-4, this is another heavily Republican district that make a Dem win rather unlikely. Pombo will win another term. CD-22: State Assemblyman Kevin McCarthy (R) — retiring Congressman Bill Thomas’ hand-picked heir — will keep this seat in the GOP column. CD-50: A late October poll, coupled with news reports of ethics problems for Congressman Brian Bilbray (R), placed this seat back into play. Congressman Duke Cunningham (R) pled guilty to bribery and other corruption charges and resigned in 2005, setting up the special election Bilbray won in June. College professor Francine Busby (D) is making her third run for this seat within the past two years. However, if the “culture of corruption” message didn’t carry Busby to victory when the Cunningham scandal was fresher a few months ago, don’t look for it to produce a different result this time. RESULTS: NO CHANGE.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’CA06′);
COLORADO:
GOVERNOR: Former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) has run a very strong campaign for this open seat. By contrast, Congressman Bob Beauprez (R) has run a largely inept campaign to succeed term-limited Governor Bill Owens (R). This is an easy call: Ritter will handily win. In fact, Ritter may have strong enough coattails to help some of his Dem runningmates score pickups with other statewide offices. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: Several hot races in the Rocky Mountain State. CD-4: Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (R) is facing a hard-charging challenge from State Representative Angie Paccione (D). Complicating the race — and hurting Musgrave — is the candidacy of Eric Eidsness (Reform), a former top-ranking EPA official during the Reagan Administration. Eidsness, a lifelong Republican, believes Musgrave’s nearly single-issue focus in Congress (sponsoring a series of anti-gay rights legislation) has embarrassed and financially hurt the district. Polls have shown the race to be close, but I believe Musgrave will survive yet another close call (and I’d like to be wrong on this one). CD-5: State Senator Doug Lamborn — the most conservative of the hopefuls — won the crowded GOP primary for this open seat after a nasty primary contest. In so doing, Lamborn defeated the hand-picked heir of retiring Congressman Joel Hefley (R). Hefley, in turn, publicly announced he was so disgusted with Lamborn’s primary campaign that he would not endorse Lamborn and urged Republicans who felt likewise to consider abstaining in this race. Dems were hopeful that Hefley’s comments would help the candidacy of retired USAF office Jay Fawcett (D). It may, but not nearly enough for Fawcett to win. Lamborn will win this race by at least several points. CD-7: This is a swing district, so highly competitive races here are not uncommon. With Congressman Beauprez giving up this seat to run for Governor, expect it to be especially competitive. Former State Senator Ed Perlmutter (D) has held an advantage over former State Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O’Donnell (R) for months. O’Donnell — after some early stumbles — has gained ground on Perlmutter in the final weeks by sharply distancing himself from President Bush and questioning the need for the US to remain in Iraq. Perlmutter, however, will still win this seat and score a Democratic pickup. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’CO06′);
CONNECTICUT:
GOVERNOR: Governor Jodi Rell (R) is immensely popular, holding one of the strongest approval races of any governor in the nation. She will cruise to a big victory over New Haven Mayor John DeStefano (D). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Joe Lieberman may not have been a team player when he decided to stay in his race for re-election as an Independent after narrowly losing the Democratic primary to businessman and anti-war activist Ned Lamont. However, it was an astute move for Lieberman. Former State Representative Alan Schlesinger (R) has only been a nominal factor in the race, as the GOP and the White House seem generally aligned with Lieberman. While Lieberman is a social liberal and repeatedly vowed to caucus with the Dems if reelected, he is also a staunch supporter of the Iraq War (thus explaining the Bush Administration’s support for him). Lamont, by contrast, has had trouble solidifying the Democratic base after the primary — as the blue collar Dems have remained fairly loyal to Lieberman. Look for Lieberman to win a fourth term. RESULT: INDY/DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Three GOP centrist incumbents in swing districts are facing very aggressive Democratic challengers, all of whom are running on anti-war platforms. All of the embattled GOP incumbents are running campaigns stressing their purported political “independence.” CD-2: Congressman Rob Simmons (R) has significant clout in the House on the Iraq War and other similar foreign policy matters because of his experience as a former CIA officer. Simmons is a supporter of the Iraq War. Former State Representative Joe Courtney (D) — who lost to Simmons in 2002 — is making a second run for the seat. The change in the national political climate makes the rematch much more competitive than the original race of four years ago. This race will be very close, but look for Simmons to narrowly win a fourth term. CD-4: The CD-4 race is also another rematch. Ten-term Congressman Chris Shays (R) is another supporter of the Iraq War, although he recently seems to be waffling on his stance. Former Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D), the ‘04 nominee, is making a second run after a narrow defeat last time. She got a boost from some recent Shays gaffes and from the withdrawal of the Green nominee from the contest. Shays had a very long run in a very Democratic district, but I think his time is up. Farrell will defeat Shays. CD-5: Twelve-term Congresswoman Nancy Johnson (R) for months looked well-positioned to hold her swing seat. Unfortunately for Johnson, State Senator Chris Murphy (D) seems to be building momentum and peaking at just the right time. Like Shays, Johnson will come close — but not close enough — to win again. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 2 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’CT06′);
DELAWARE:
US SENATE: US Senator Tom Carper (D) will score a landslide re-election victory over law professor and former INS Assistant Commissioner Jan Ting (R). RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Despite recent medical problems (two minor strokes), Congressman Mike Castle (R) will win big in his race for an eighth term. RESULTS: NO CHANGE.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’DE06′);
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
Happy Halloween.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 10.31.06 | Permalink | postCount(’103106a’);
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here’s my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in — feel free to add a sticker and brochure — and I’ll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily “thank you” note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. OUR THANKS TODAY GO TO: Teton County School Board Chair and Internet executive Gary Trauner, Democrat for Congress in Wyoming.
WANNA TRADE?
I’m interested in building up my collection of Canadian campaign buttons. If you’ve got Canadian political buttons to trade, I’m interesting in swapping with you for some great US pins. Please drop me a note!
WRITERS WANTED: WRITE FOR POLITICS1.
Claim your 15 minutes of online fame with the political crowd. Click here to learn more about writing for Politics1.
