Archive for November 1st, 2006
Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
WEDNESDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 3.
MAINE:
GOVERNOR: Governor John Baldacci (D) may hold a fairly low approval rating, but he will still win a re-election by a comfortable plurality. State Senator Chandler Woodcock (R) — who is too conservative to be truly competitive in this center-left state — will limp in at a distant second place. Interestingly, both State Representative Barbara Merrill (Independent) and radio talk show host Pat LaMarche (Green) appear headed to respectable double-digit finishes. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Olympia Snowe (R) will score a landslide re-election — possibly by the largest margin this year of any US Senate race in the nation. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-8: Both incumbents are very safe. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’ME06′);
MARYLAND:
GOVERNOR: Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) was elected in an upset four years ago in this heavily Democratic state, in large part because of the inept campaign run by his then-opponent. This time, however, Ehrlich will not be so fortunate. Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) is a strong contender and has run a decent campaign. Some indy polls in recent months showed Ehrlich closing the gap (and then losing ground again), but not one has shown him leading O’Malley. Look for O’Malley to win by at least several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring. Ten-term Congressman Ben Cardin (D), Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) and peace activist Kevin Zeese (Green) are running to replace him. Steele has shown surprising strength for a Maryland Republican, with polls frequently showing him in a virtual tie with Cardin. Despite a fairly conservative record, Steele has worked to distance himself from President Bush’s agenda. Despite this, Steele will find it very hard to overcome the Democratic wave on Election Day. Cardin will win, probably by a margin of at least 4-points. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-3: Attorney John Sarbanes (D) — the son of the retiring US Senator — will easily win Cardin’s open House seat. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MD06′);
MASSACHUSETTS:
GOVERNOR: After just one term, Governor Mitt Romney (R) did not seek re-election in order to concentrate on laying the groundwork for a 2008 Presidential run. Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick won the competitive Democratic primary with surprising ease, and has held an solid advantage ever since. Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) has lagged far behind, seemingly having trouble crossing the rather low 30% threshold in polls. Wealthy Republican businessman Christy Mihos was pressured out of the GOP contest, so he is running instead as an Independent — and further hurting Healey by siphoning away some GOP votes. Patrick will win by a very big margin, making him the state’s first ever African-American Governor and the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial race here since 1986. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Ted Kennedy (D) will score yet another landslide re-election victory. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: No competitive congressional races — and 5 of the state’s 10 incumbents were already reelected without any opposition at all. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MA06′);
MICHIGAN:
GOVERNOR: When billionaire Amway executive Dick DeVos (R) launched his campaign last year against Governor Jennifer Granholm (D), polls showed the incumbent was highly vulnerable. A weak state economy seemed to further hurt Granholm. However, the national anti-Republican wave and an aggressive campaign by the incumbent propelled her back into a comfortable lead in recent weeks. Despite high early GOP hopes here, Granholm will win a second term — likely by at least 10-points. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) is facing a surprisingly energetic challenge from Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R). However, Bouchard is under-funded and running in a bad year for Republican challengers. Stabenow will win by at least 10-15%. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Democrats fielded decent challengers in several districts — and any one of these candidates has the potential of being in the right place at the right time to capitalize on the national wave with an upset win — but right now the incumbents all appear likely to survive. CD-7: Former State Representative and Religious Right activist Tim Walberg ousted moderate freshman Congressman Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary. The district is fairly solidly Republican, and paralegal and farmer Sharon Reiner (D) is not viewed as a particularly strong nominee. With little resources, Reiner will come closer than anyone expects, but Walberg will still win the seat. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MI06′);
MINNESOTA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) looked strong and his proclaimed independent streak seemed to help him distance himself from the national GOP in this Dem-leaning state. Further, the Democrats nominated Attorney General Mike Hatch, an unexciting candidate who has run twice before for Governor. Respected former State Finance Commissioner Peter Hutchinson (Independence) — who served under Governor Jesse Ventura (Independence) — is also running. The national Democratic wave will claim Pawlenty as another one of the many GOP victims, but the final margin will be rather close. This will also end any talk of Pawlenty as a possible candidate for President or VP in 2008. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator Mark Dayton (D), somewhat of a political gadfly, is not seeking a second term. Republicans quickly proclaimed Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) as the frontrunner for the open seat and touted him as the “strongest” shot in the nation for the GOP to score a pickup in the Senate. Well, that was all a long time ago. The Democrats quickly unified behind Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) and she roared into a solid lead. Kennedy is simply too conservative and too pro-Bush to win this seat in the current political climate. In fact, Kennedy is trailing Klobuchar by a rather wide margin. Klobuchar will easily keep this seat in Democratic hands. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Lots of unexpectedly close House races here, any of which could go either way. CD-1: Congressman Gil Gutknecht (R) is facing a surprisingly aggressive challenge from military veteran and teacher Tim Walz (D). This could be one of the sleeper races if the national wave is of tsunami proportions. I’m going out on a limb here, but I predict Walz will narrowly win defeat Gutknecht in a major upset. CD-2: Retired FBI Agent Coleen Rowley (D) was highly touted by the DCCC against Congressman John Kline (R) — but then Rowley proceeded to run a bumbling campaign for months. With some summer staffing changes, Rowley seems to finally have her act together. This race will be much closer than anyone thinks, but Kline will survive. CD-5: This open seat is solidly Democratic, so State Representative Keith Ellison (D) is a lock to win — and to become the first Muslim to serve in Congress. CD-6: State Senator Michelle Bachmann (R) and child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D) are locked in a very competitive race for the seat being vacated by Congressman Kennedy. Bachmann is one of the most socially conservative members of the state legislature, but this does not seem to be hurting her (as Kennedy was also very conservative). Wetterling is a quality candidate with a compelling personal story, and has a real shot here. Polls show the lead shifting back and forth. Look for Bachmann to score a narrow win. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MN06′);
MISSISSIPPI:
US SENATE: US Senator Trent Lott (R) will win a landslide re-election victory over State Representative and former LaRouche activist Erik Fleming (D). This will pave the way — with Rick Santorum gone from the Senate — for Lott to seek the Republican Whip position in the next Congress. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: The GOP challenger in CD-2 is a credible candidate, but all of the Mississippi incumbents are safe. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MS06′);
MISSOURI:
US SENATE: The seat held by US Senator Jim Talent (R) has a rather volatile recent electoral history. In 2000, incumbent John Ashcroft (R) lost to deceased Governor Mel Carnahan (D). As promised, the Governor appointed Carnahan’s widow to serve the two-year term. In 2002, Talent ousted Carnahan. Further, this is a state highy-prone historically to being influenced by national trends. This year, look for the Democrats to reclaim the seat with a victory by State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D). McCaskill — just two years after narrowly losing the 2004 gubernatorial race — is running a smart campaign. She has also exploited Talent’s weaknesses, particularly on issues like his waffling opposition to stem cell research. McCaskill will give the Dems one of the key seats they need for control of the Senate. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: None of the Congressional races here appear to be very competitive. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MO06′);
MONTANA:
US SENATE: US Senator Conrad Burns (R) has spent the 2006 campaign dogged by news reports of serious corruption allegations involving his close ties to disgraced lobbyist and felon Jack Abramoff. Adding to Burns’ problems is his propensity to repeatedly shoot himself in the foot with a series of embarrassing verbal gaffes. Combined with the national wave and recent Democratic gains in Montana (the Dems captured the Governorship and control of the state legislature in 2004), this spells defeat for Burns. State Senate President Jon Tester (D) is an unapologetic prairie populist. Burns may correctly label Tester “a liberal” but it won’t matter because Tester will still win by several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: State Representative Monica Lindeen (D) is a decent candidate, but she won’t come anywhere close to defeating Congressman Denny Rehberg (R). As an aside: Rehberg probably made a misstep a few months ago when he decided to not challenge Burns in the US Senate primary, as he may well have won the primary and been able to hold the seat for the GOP against Tester. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’MT06′);
NEBRASKA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Dave Heineman (R) has one of the top approval ratings of any US Governor. In the May primary, Heineman scored a political miracle by handily defeating legendary Nebraska football coach and Congressman Tom Osborne. Heineman will win the general election with at least 70% of the vote. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Ben Nelson is probably the most conservative Democrat currently in the Senate. He is also a good match for this seat, as Nebraska has a modern history of sending like-minded Democrats to the Senate. Although wealthy former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts (R) has been spending lavishly from his own pocket, he won’t come anywhere close to defeating Nelson. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Democrats are fielding a strong slate of candidates for all three of Nebraska’s US House seats. Former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul (D) in CD-1 and former Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce Director Jim Esch (D) in CD-2 will both come close in their runs against GOP incumbents. Both Dems have run strong enough races to require the national Republicans to recently divert some dwindling funds to defending these normally safe seats. CD-3: The race to watch in Nebraska is the contest for Congressman Osborne’s open seat. State Senator Adrian Smith (R) holds very fiscally conservative views — including his opposition to federal farm subsidy programs and his free-trade views. Whether you agree or disagree with Smith’s stances (and they are one of the reasons the conservative Club for Growth is strongly backing him), the views are hurting him significantly here. Rancher Scott Kleeb (D) is a telegenic candidate who is is effectively exploiting Smith’s weaknesses with the district’s huge agricultural base. Kleeb will score a shocking upset for the Dems in this solidly GOP district. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’NE06′);
NEVADA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Kenny Guinn (R) is term-limited. Guinn’s longtime nemesis within the Nevada GOP — Congressman Jim Gibbons — is the Republican nominee to succeed him. That explains why Guinn frequently bad-mouths Gibbons to the media and has declined to endorse Gibbons in the gubernatorial race against State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D). Titus is not a very strong candidate. She certainly is more liberal than the breed of past Democrats who have won major statewide races in Nevada. Fortunately for Titus, Gibbons is a highly flawed candidate has has to deal with with last-minute scandals in the closing days. First is the ongoing “he said”/”she said” soap opera over the late night incident just days ago in a casino hotel parking lot with a waitress. The woman called 911 and claimed Gibbons tried to sexually assault her. Gibbons said they both had been drinking, but he only helped grab her to stop he from falling when she tripped in the parking lot. A casino parking lot videotape has gone missing. The second problem are statewide TV news reports that the anti-illegal immigration Gibbons knowingly had an illegal alien working for several years in his household — and then tried to cover it up when he feared the story would leak. These problems suggest Titus will score a narrow win — not because of anything she is doing, so much as it is the public damage Gibbons is inflicting on himself in these final days. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US SENATE: US Senator John Ensign (R) has faced a surprisingly energetic challenge from businessman and Presidential scion Jack Carter (D). Carter is an earnest hopeful, but Ensign has run a very safe campaign. Ensign will win by at least 10-points. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: While CD-1 Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) is safe, the other two districts are worth watching. CD-2. Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) and State University System Regent Jill Derby (D) are facing-off for Congressman Gibbons’ open seat. Heller, a GOP moderate, narrowly won a very contentious primary over more conservative opponents. The contest was so bitter that the second place finisher unsuccessfully sued in state court to set-aside the CD-2 primary results and hold a re-vote. Derby is a good candidate — and recent polls show the two leads essentially tied — but Heller will win this race by at least 5-points. CD-3: This is another sleeper race to watch. Congressman Jon Porter (R) is being challenged by Tessa Hafen (D), a former top aide to US Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Hafen will come close, closer than anyone expects, but she won’t defeat Porter. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.02.06 | Permalink | postCount(’NV06′);
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Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
I guess the Badnarik campaign did a little Halloween sign waving…
Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
Ballot Access News reports that Ben Meiklejohn is making great progress in his race for Maine state house…
Ben Meiklejohn, Green nominee for the Maine State House in the 120th district, is considered somewhat likely to win his race. A few weeks ago, the Republican in the race dropped out and …
Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
This is a nice little item from the NY Daily News that talks about the often overlooked cabinet races in New York state… and some of the third party candidates running for those offices.
From the New York Daily News…
With scandals swirling around two major statewide races this fall, third-party candidates …
Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
Looks like the Libertarians might do well to focus their resources and attention on other races, like the winnable state house contests in Indiana, Vermont, and possibly other states. Places where that time, staff, and money might do some actual good and elect some candidates to office.
The Smither …
Continue Reading November 1st, 2006
TUESDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 2.
FLORIDA:
GOVERNOR: Polls all year have given the Republicans an advantage in holding the seat being vacated by term-limited Governor Jeb Bush (R). Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) — a capable and affable politician who has already won statewide office twice — has run a very well-financed and safe campaign. He emerged from his primary largely unscathed (although public questions of his sexual orientation and hypocrisy continue to swirl). By contrast, Congressman Jim Davis (D) won a primary that inflicted some bruises on the nominee. It forced Davis to waste some time repairing the damage. Crist also outraised Davis by more than a 2-to-1 margin (disclaimer: I’m a Davis contributor and supporter). While Davis has been narrowing the gap in recent days — cutting Crist’s advantage to the single digits and winning the two televised debates — Crist still will likely win. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Bill Nelson (D) will easily defeat Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R) by at least a 2-to-1 margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-8: Congressman Ric Keller (R) was once viewed as vulnerable, but he should have no trouble defeating businssman Charlie Stuart (D). CD-9: “The King is dead. Long live the King.” Retiring 12-term Congressman Mike Bilirakis (R) will have no trouble handing his seat over to his son. State Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) will defeat former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky (D) — a credible candidate — by a comfortable margin. CD-11: Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor (D) is a lock to win Congressman Davis’ open CD-11 seat by a landslide margin. CD-13: Based upon reported spending, this is the most expensive US House race in the nation. Auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) spent millions from his own deep pockets to win the primary for Congresswoman Harris’ open seat. In so doing, Buchanan left lots of hurt feelings that remain unhealed. Those rifts — and some gaffes and missteps by Buchanan — have helped wealthy bank president Christine Jennings (D), who is also spending from her own pockets. Jennings will score an upset and win this seat — and set Jennings up as a top NRCC target for 2008. CD-16: The Democrats can bank this GOP seat as a “gimme,” thanks to disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley (R). Foley resigned from the House and quit the race last month, but too late for the Republicans to put replacement nominee Joe Negron on the ballot. Voters must vote for Foley to vote for Negron — so place venture capitalisy Tim Mahoney (D) in the win column. CD-22: Congressman Clay Shaw (R) is facing the toughest fight of his political life, in what is the second most expensive House race in the nation. State Senator Ron Klein (D) has assailed Shaw for being too close to President Bush. Keep in mind this was a district — even though redrawn in 2002 to help Shaw — won in 2004 by John Kerry. Shaw has countered with attacks on Klein for being “a lobbyist.” Shaw also likes to claim he will be the next Ways & Means Committee Chair, although there is almost no chance of this coming true (as anyone inside the Beltway could tell you the W+M Chair will be either Republican Jim McCrery or Democrat Charlie Rangel, depending upon which party controls the House next year). This is the first time — after years of failed DCCC hype that “Shaw can be beaten” — that I believe Shaw will actually lose. The national political climate will claim Shaw as a victim, as Klein will win by a close margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’FL06′);
GEORGIA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Sonny Perdue (R) appears to be heading towards a landslide re-election win over Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-4: DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson (D) already won this seat when he ousted controversial Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney (D) in the primary. The general election is just the coronation for Johnson. CD-8: Former Congressman Mac Collins (R) lost the GOP primary for US Senate in 2004, and is now attempting to return to DC by challenging Congressman Jim Marshall (D) in this redrawn district. He’s run a credible campaign, but Marshall will survive. CD-12: Former Congressman Max Burns (R) is challenging freshman Congressman John Barrows (D), the man who ousted him in 2004. This rematch race won’t end any differently than did the last one. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’GA06′);
HAWAII:
GOVERNOR: Governor Linda Lingle (R) will win in a landslide over former State Senator Randy Iwase (R). This sets up Lingle’s likely run for US Senator in 2010. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: Once US Senator Dan Akaka (D) survived the primary challenge from Congressman Ed Case (D), he was on cruise control to victory in November. Akaka will have no problem defeating State Representative Cynthia Thielen (R) by a wide margin. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-2: Former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono (D) will have no problem winning Congressman Case’s open seat. She will defeat State Senator Bob Hogue (R) by a comfortable amount in this safe Dem district. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’HI06′);
IDAHO:
GOVERNOR: Congressman Butch Otter (R) is locked in a surprisingly tight contest with newspaper publisher Jerry Brady (D). Brady — who was the Dem nominee four years ago — ran a respectable race in 2002. This year, with the national political climate, Brady’s chances are even better. Polls in these closing days show the race virtually tied. However, the colorful Otter will score a surprisingly narrow win in this reddest of red states. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-1: Democrats rejoiced when controversial State Representative Bill Sali won the crowded GOP primary for Otter’s open seat. Sali — an arch-conservative — is a bombastic “loose cannon” despised by nearly all his GOP colleagues in the state legislature. In fact, the Speaker and other Republicans have worked to undermine Sali’s campaign. Businessman Larry Grant (D) is the beneficiary of this GOP in-fighting. Grant may become a “one-termer” in this heavily Republican district, but he’ll still win this seat in 2006. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’ID06′);
ILLINOIS:
GOVERNOR: Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) may be mired in the taint of scandal, but that isn’t stopping him from rolling to a second term over hapless State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka (R). While Blagojevich has yet to be formally charged with anything — or even officially named as a target of the swirling investigations (although he was clearly the unnamed “political official” in a recent pay-to-play corruption indictment of a crony) — the Republicans are also tied to a legacy of corruption in the Illinois Governor’s Mansion. Attorney Rich Whitney (Green) will finish in the double-digits merely as a protest voted cast for the only seemingly untainted candidate in the race. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: In national tidal wave election years in the past, Illinois frequently produced at least one of the totally unexpected House upsets. That said, these races are already holding attention of pundits. CD-6: In the race for the open seat of retiring Congressman Henry Hyde (R), State Senator Peter Roskam (R) is locked in a tough race with disabled Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). In normal circumstances, Roskam should win handily due to district demographics. Instead, he’ll win by a relatively close margin. CD-8: When Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first elected in 2004 by upsetting an entrenched GOP incumbent, Republicans vowed Bean would be a one-termer. Instead, she looks positioned to easily defeat wealthy investment banker David McSweeney (D). CD-17: Congressman Lane Evans (D) is retiring for health reasons. Phil Hare (D) — Evans’ Chief of Staff — will likely defeat former TV news anchor Andrea Lane Zinga (R) by several points. RESULTS: NO CHANGES..
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’IL06′);
INDIANA:
US SENATE: No Democrat even bothered to file against US Senator Dick Lugar (R), guaranteeing him a sixth term in the Senate against his Libertarian Party challenger. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: For a red state, Indiana is looking surprisingly purple this year — in large part because of a combination of the national political climate and high disapproval ratings for Governor Mitch Daniels (R). CD-2: Congressman Chris Chocola (R), a two-term incumbent, is facing a rematch this year against attorney Joe Donnelly (D). For whatever reason, voters here have never developed very warm feelings towards Chocola. Polls have shown Chocola trailing for months, by varying margins. Donnelly will win the rematch in this swing district. CD-7: Congresswoman Julia Carson (D) is a perennial GOP target. She runs weak campaigns, yet somehow Carson survives each time. One October indy poll showed Carson trailing wealthy auto dealer Eric Dickerson (R), but it appears to be an outlier. Carson will win another close one. CD-8: Democrats incorrectly predict the imminent electoral demise of Congressman John Hostettler (R) every two years. A chronically poor fundraiser, Hosteller struggled to victory in all of his past reelection contests — including the ones against weaker challengers. Hostettler’s luck will run out this year in his run for a seventh term, as Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) will defeat him. CD-9: 2006 marks the third time in a row that Congressman Mike Sodrel (R) and former Congressman Baron Hill (D) will face-off. Hill won the 2002 race, while Sodrel won the 2004 rematch. Sodrel has trailed in all of the indy polls since Labor Day. It’s time for the seesaw here to flip again, as Hill will win round #3 (setting up Hill-Sodrel rematch #4 in 2008). RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’IN06′);
IOWA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Tom Vilsack (D), the current DLC Chair and a possible 2008 White House hopeful, is term-limited. The gubernatorial race appeared to be one of the best opportunities in the nation for the GOP to score a pickup in an otherwise gloomy electoral year. Congressman Jim Nussle (R) is a strong candidate with a unified party behind him — and Nussle was able to regularly win crossover votes in past years in his CD-1 swing district. However, Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) — who is sometimes viewed as a bit of a lightweight — also is running a fairly strong campaign. In any other year — with the field being fairly level — Nussle would scrape out a win. This year, however, Culver will win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: Three races to watch. CD-1: Excluding Nussle’s wins here, this district is otherwise fairly solidly Democratic in its propensities. Both parties nominated strong candidates: former Iowa Trial Lawyers Association President Bruce Braley (D) and restaurant chain owner Mike Whalen (R). Both men are wealthy and have been able to help with self-financing. With Braley, the Dems will finally reclaim this former Dem bastion. CD-2: Nobody is paying much attention to this district, but it could be one of the sleeper races to watch. Congressman Jim Leach (R) — one of the most moderate Republicans in the House — is facing an energetic challenge from college professor Dave Loebsack (D), a grassroots progressive activist. While Leach holds a major fundraising advantage, Loebsack will keep this race surprisingly close. Leach should win, but it won’t be by much. CD-3: Republicans would really like to defeat Congressman Leonard Boswell (D), as he’s a frequent NRCC target. The GOP initially had high hopes for State Senate President Jeff Lamberti (R), but he has lagged far behind Boswell for months in the polls. While the Republicans are still is warmly backing Lamberti — at least, in words of praise — the NRCC cut-off his financial support a month ago to instead concentrate on defending embattled GOP incumbents. Boswell will survive again, and by a fairly comfortable margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’IA06′);
KANSAS:
GOVERNOR: Governor Kathleen Sebelius — a centrist DLC-style Dem — is an anomaly: a highly popular Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation. And, like in 2002, Sebelius again selected a former Republican as her Lieutenant Governor runningmate in order to take advantage of the chronic rift here in the GOP between Religious Right conservatives and more socially-moderate, fiscal conservatives. State Senator Jim Bennett (R) is not a bad candidate, but he still will lose by at least 10-points. The Dems also have the potential to unexpectedly pickup 1-2 statewide offices, largely on the strength of Sebelius’ coattails and the ongoing GOP in-fighting. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: The Democrats have fielded some credible House candidates here — particularly pharmaceutical researcher Nancy Boyda (R) in her rematch against CD-2 Congressman Jim Ryun (R) — but don’t expect any miracle upsets here. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’KS06′);
KENTUCKY:
US HOUSE: CD-3. Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) is another perennial DCCC target, yet she survives (and sometimes by rather significant margins) in this swing district. Her opponent this year is liberal newspaper publisher John Yarmuth (D). Independent polls since Labor Day have essentially shown the race as a virtual tie, with Yarmuth possibly holding a very slim advantage. Despite this, look for Northup’s luck to hold up with her bucking the national wave and winning yet another term. CD-4: In 2002, Congressman Ken Lucas (D) held off a stiff challenge from military veteran Geoff Davis (R). In 2004, Lucas honored his voluntary term-limits pledge and retired — giving Davis the opportunity to win the seat. Now, in 2006, it is retired Congressman Lucas challenging freshman Congressman Geoff Davis (R). Polls have shown the lead swinging back and forth between the two men. This race is close: so close that either man stands a nearly equal chance of winning. But, since I have to make the call, I’ll say Davis survives by the narrowest of margins. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’KY06′);
LOUISIANA:
US HOUSE: Under Louisiana state law, an open congressional primary involving candidates from all parties will be held on November 7. If no one candidate wins a majority of the vote, then the top finishers (regardless of party) will advance to a December run-off. CD-2. Congressman Bill Jefferson (D) is in big trouble. The FBI raided Jefferson’s New Orleans home and found over $90,000 cash from purported bribes hidden in the freezer. The FBI also raided Jefferson’s Capitol Hill office and a top Jefferson aide already pled guilty to helping facilitate those bribes — so it’s only a matter of time before Jefferson is indicted. Based upon all of this, the state Democratic Party endorsed State Representative Karen Carter (D) in her race against Jefferson. In addition to Carter, 11 others are also running. Carter will win this race — the only question is whether she does it outright in the primary (unlikely) or in the run-off. CD-3: Freshman Congressman Charlie Melancon (D) is facing an aggressive fight rematch from State Senator Craig Romero (R), an ‘04 hopeful who narrowly missed making the run-off. Despite the challenge, Melancon will win a second term. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’LA06′);
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Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.01.06 | Permalink | postCount(’110106a’);
SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE.
Here’s my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office, etc., campaign you are involved in — feel free to add a sticker and brochure — and I’ll place a link to official campaign site here on our homepage in a daily “thank you” note. My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301. OUR THANKS TODAY GO TO: Attorney Lois Murphy, Democrat for Congress in Pennsylvania’s CD-6.
WANNA TRADE?
I’m interested in building up my collection of Canadian campaign buttons. If you’ve got Canadian political buttons to trade, I’m interesting in swapping with you for some great US pins. Please drop me a note!
WRITERS WANTED: WRITE FOR POLITICS1.
Claim your 15 minutes of online fame with the political crowd. Click here to learn more about writing for Politics1.
