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Continue Reading November 6th, 2006
MONDAY: POLITICS1 ELECTION FORECAST - PART 5.
PENNSYLVANIA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Ed Rendell (D) will win a second term by a wide margin, in what he promises is the final campaign of his lengthy political career. Retired pro football player Lynn Swann (R) proved to be a disappointing and lightweight candidate. GOP leaders helped clear the primary field for Swann, but his best day in the polls was when he launched his campaign last year. It went all downhill from there. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Rick Santorum (R) has been at the top of everyone’s “most endangered incumbent” list for nearly two years. The outcome of this contact — matching Santorum against State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) — was never in doubt. Yes, once in a while Santorum narrowed his deficit to the single digits, but he’s generally trailed Casey by 10+ points throughout the campaign. Santorum’s backers and the Republican Party financed a n extensive petition effort to get the Green Party’s nominee on the ballot, in the hope of siphoning away Dem votes, but the signature drive and subsequent GOP-financed legal challenge fell short. Even after a multi-million dollar NRSC ad blitz bashing Casey, Santorum failed to narrow the gap. Casey will score the most anticipated Dem pickup of this electoral season. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: CD-4: Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R) is locked in a surprisingly tough race for a fourth term, having never before faced a competitive challenge. Former Congressional aide and hospital lobbyist Jason Altmire (D) is running an aggressive campaign, and recent indy polls show him within reach of Hart. Altmire appears to have the momentum in these final days, and he’ll come very close, but look for Hart to survive. CD-6: Congressman Jim Gerlach (R) — a top Dem target — represents a swing district won by Kerry in 2004. This year he is facing a rematch with attorney Lois Murphy (D), who lost by 2-points last time. The national demographics this year are different — and more favorable — for Murphy. Look for her to reverse the outcome of the ‘04 race. CD-7: This is an easy call: Congressman Curt Weldon (R) is a sure-thing goner. Weldon was already locked in a very tough battle against retired Navy Admiral Joe Sestak (D) — and that was before the FBI conducted multiple raids on several locations tied to Weldon’s family and associates last month related to corruption allegations. Sestak will win handily. CD-8: Freshman Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R) seems an unlikely fit for this district, as he’s a conservative Republican representing a very moderate constituency (Kerry defeated Bush here by 3-points in 2004). This seat was represented for years by a GOP centrist, so voters here are certainly very willing to send a Republican for Congress. Iraq War veteran and attorney Patrick Murphy (D) is a top-notch candidate for this seat. However, Fitzpatrick has run a good campaign. Recent polls have given the incumbent a slight edge, and this seat could easily go either way. Fitzpatrick will scrape out a very narrow win. CD-10: Scandal — not any national wave — is the cause of the political demise of Congressman Don Sherwood (R). After winning election as a “family values” conservative, the married Sherwood was revealed as a phony when his mistress called police to report Sherwood tried to strangle her after an argument. When she failed to cooperate with the police, the police were unable to pursue criminal charges against Sherwood. On Friday the AP reported why: Sherwood had secretly entered last year into a written settlement agreement with the mistress in which he will pay he $500,000 in installment payments in exchange for her silence. He’s paid over half so far, so she won’t be talking anytime before Election Day. After Election Day nobody will care, as Sherwood will no longer be in Congress. Naval Reserve officer and college professor Chris Carney (D) is going to destroy Sherwood by a wide margin. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 3 SEATS.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’PA06′);
RHODE ISLAND:
GOVERNOR: If the Dems can hold the governorship in a solid red state like Kansas, then it is only fair that the Republicans can hold the governorship in a solid blue state like Rhode Island. Governor Don Carcieri (R) is possibly “too conservative” for many voters. However, in a state where political corruption unfortunately seems de rigueur, Carcieri is seemingly untouched by scandal. For many voters, that may be reason enough to re-elect him. For the record, Lieutenant Governor Charlie Fogarty (D) is a career public servant who also appears to be an honest, decent guy. Carcieri, however, will win by several points. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: If Carcieri is a Republican too conservative for many Rhode Island voters, US Senator Lincoln Chafee is a GOP centrist with views much more aligned with state voters. That’s why it is so ironic that Carcieri will survive while Chafee will be defeated by former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Chafee is not a good fit for the GOP: he supports gay marriage and abortion rights, is vocal in his criticisms of President Bush’s domestic surveillance program, and told reporters he did not vote for President Bush in 2004. In fact, Chafee barely survived his primary this year from a social conservative challenger. Had Chafee simply switched parties in 2002 — a topic he acknowledged discussing back then with some Dem Senators — he would be headed to an easy re-election victory this year. Whitehouse convincingly argues that so long as Chafee votes to make the Republicans the majority party, it results in conservative chairmanships and policies sharply at odds with Rhode Island values. Whitehouse will win by at least several points. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: No competitive House races. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’RI06′);
SOUTH CAROLINA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Mark Sanford (R) is an incumbent with a long list of enemies within his own party and the state legislature. They dislike his uncompromising obstinacy and loose cannon behavior. Although some prominent Republicans are openly backing State Senator Tommy Moore (D), Sanford will still easily win a second term. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-5: Republicans had high hopes last year of ousting Congressman John Spratt (D), or at least giving him a close race. However, State Representative Ralph Norman (R) has proven to be a weak challenger. Spratt will win in a landslide. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’SC06′);
SOUTH DAKOTA:
GOVERNOR: Governor Mike Rounds (R) will defeat former State Representative Jack Billion (D) in a landslide. The only question: Will Rounds then use this big win as a springboard into the 2008 contest against US Senator Tim Johnson (D)? RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth (D) is not facing any serious opposition. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’SD06′);
TENNESSEE:
GOVERNOR: Governor Phil Bredesen (D) is a good fit for Tennessee. He’ll win a second term by a huge margin over State Senator Jim Bryson (R). RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) is retiring, in anticipation of making a 2008 White House run. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) and Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) are competing for the open seat. Corker, a GOP moderate, won the primary because two conservatives split the conservative base. Ford, like Corker, is also a centrist — and certainly the most conservative African-American currently serving in Congress. Ford was gaining on Corker for much of October, but momentum now seems to have shifted back to the Republican. Corker will win by at least a few points. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-1: Congressman Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring. Republicans have held this seat since the end of the Civil War. Don’t expect that tradition to change now. State Representative David Davis (R) will win this open seat. CD-9: This race for Congressman Ford’s open seat — a safe Dem seat — is particularly tough to predict. State Senator Steve Cohen (D) — who is white — won the very crowded primary over a large field of African-American hopefuls. Black voters make up a large amount of the district. Congressman Ford’s brother — pharmaceutical sales representative Jake Ford (Independent) — moved back to Tennessee earlier within the past year just to seek this seat. The incumbent has made no endorsement and Jake Ford vows to caucus with the Dems if he wins. Despite the Ford name and the racial undertones, look for Cohen to win. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’TN06′);
TEXAS:
GOVERNOR: This is probably the most colorful gubernatorial contest in the nation, featuring four viable candidates. Governor Rick Perry (R) is being seriously challenged by former Congressman Chris Bell (D), State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (Independent) and outspoken musician/author Kinky Friedman (Independent). All three challengers are scoring in the double-digits in indy polls. Perry, meanwhile, is mired around the 40% mark — meaning he could have been in trouble in a head-to-head contest. Since none of the challengers were willing to exit in favor of a single “anti-Perry” unity candidate, Perry will win a plurality victory. Bell will finish second (something that was once in doubt). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will win re-election in a landslide over her earnest — yet hapless — opponent. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-17: Congressman Chet Edwards (D) will have to fight hard for victory every two years in his gerrymandered, conservative district. Edwards is a conservative “Blue Dog Democrat” backed by groups like the US Chamber of Commerce, NFIB and the Farm Bureau that rarely back Democrats. Iraq War veteran Van Taylor (R) is a credible candidate, but Edwards will win again (possibly by a margin in excess of 10-points). CD-22: Resigned House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) will see a Democrat win his open seat due to his own bungled attempt to withdraw from the race. When a judge vetoed DeLay’s attempt to let the GOP replace him on the November ballot, he withdrew his name entirely. In turn, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) is running as a write-in candidate and is backed by the NRCC. Two other Republicans are also running as write-in candidates. Former Congressman Nick Lampson (D) — a victim of DeLay’s 2004 redistricting plan in a nearby district — will win this seat. CD-23: Democrats would like to oust Congressman Henry Bonilla (R), but I don’t see it happening. Bonilla will win another term, either on Tuesday or in the December run-off (if needed). RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’TX06′);
UTAH:
US SENATE: US Senator Orrin Hatch (R) will win big over internet executive Pete Ashdown (D). RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: All three Congressional incumbents will win re-election by wide margins. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’UT06′);
VERMONT:
GOVERNOR: Former State Democratic Chair Scudder Parker has been steadily gaining on Governor Jim Douglas (R) over the past month. However, the moderate incumbent is well-respected and will win another term by at least several points. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Jim Jeffords (Independent) is retiring. Congressman Bernie Sanders (Independent) — a self-proclaimed “socialist” — will score a wide win over wealthy software executive Rich Tarrant (R). Sanders –like Jeffords — has vowed to caucus with the Dems. RESULT: INDY/DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: The race for Congressman Sanders’ open seat was very close for months, but State Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D) moved out to a significant lead over the past month. Retired State Adjutant General and USAF Major General Martha Rainville — a pro-choice moderate closely aligned with Governor Douglas — was probably the strongest candidate her party could have nominated this year. Unfortunately for Rainville, this is a hyper-partisan year and she will not be able to overcome the hurdle of her party label in this generally liberal state. Welch will win. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’VT06′);
VIRGINIA:
US SENATE: US Senator George Allen (R) should have had this one in the bag, as it was his race to lose. He was holding a massive lead in the polls over his likely Senate rivals and the Inside-the-Beltway crowd had already anointed Allen as the leading conservative rival to McCain for the 2008 Presidential nomination. And then Allen started being Allen. The stupid Macaca has ineptly spun by his own campaign from a minor problem into a major crisis. More bad press followed, including Allen’s angry and flip-flopping reaction to the reports (which he since acknowledged) that his mother’s family is Jewish. Former Reagan Administration Navy Secretary and bestselling author Jim Webb (D) — who switched parties to make the race — has proven to be an aggressive challenger. Even at Allen’s worst moments, Webb moved into a virtual tie with Allen but did not pass him. In many ways, these numbers were like those from last year’s Kaine-Kilgore gubernatorial race in which the Republican held an ever-dwindling advantage until near the very end. Webb seems to be peaking at the right time, and the national wave should also benefit him. Webb will win by the narrowest of margins. RESULT: DEM GAIN.
US HOUSE: CD-2: Congresswoman Thelma Drake (R) finds herself locked into a surprisingly close race race against Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam (D). Independent polls show the lead switching back and forth, although Kellam may have peaked a bit too early. This is a swing district that went for Bush in 2004 by 16-points, but then went Dem in the ‘05 Gov race by 3-points. Look for Drake to win a second term. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’VA06′);
WASHINGTON:
US SENATE: US Senator Maria Cantwell (D) rebounded from weak summer poll numbers against insurance executive Mike McGavick (R). These days, she again looks positioned to score a convincing win for a second term. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-5: Congresswoman Cathy McMorris (R) is locked in a much tougher than expected race against scientist and rancher Peter Goldmark (D). Goldmark’s surprising strength forced McMorris to run a heavy volley of attack spots and import big name Republicans to campaign for her. McMorris will win, but Goldmark is well-positioned to be taken more seriously by the DCCC if he makes a second run in 2008. CD-8: Freshman Congressman Dave Reichert (R) is a top DCCC target in this swing district. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) has raised a large amount of money and hammered Reichert in TV spots for promising to be independent-minded when in reality Reichert is essentially a solid pro-Bush and pro-Iraq War vote in the House. While that kind of record may help in many area of the nation, it would not be a plus in this district. Burner will score a Dem pickup here. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’WA06′);
WEST VIRGINIA:
US SENATE: US Senator Robert C. Byrd (D) first was elected to Congress in 1952. Now, more than five decades later, he will easily win yet another term in DC. Wealthy businessman and former State GOP Chair John Raese — who espouses elimination of both the federal minimum wage and air pollution controls — will lose his third statewide campaign. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-1: Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) could have been in trouble, had he faced a tougher foe this year. Mollohan is under investigation for possible corruption involving a sweetheart land deal with a federal contractor. State Delegate Chris Wakim (R) turned out to also be a flawed candidate, who admitted his campaign materials falsified claims about his military service (falsely claimed to be a Gulf War veteran) and an Ivy League graduate degree. Mollohan will win. CD-2: Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) is a perennial Dem tareg in this swing district. This time her opponent is former State Democratic Chairman and former State Environmental Protection Secretary Mike Callaghan (D). He’s a credible candidate, but Capito will win yet again. RESULTS: NO CHANGES.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’WV06′);
WISCONSIN:
GOVERNOR: Governor Jim Doyle (D) is facing an aggressive challenge from four-term Congressman Mark Green (R). Doyle’s poll numbers have been fairly lackluster, but still he always managed to hold an advantage over Green. Doyle likely won’t win big — but he’ll still win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Herb Kohl (D) will win in a landslide over his gadfly GOP opponent. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US HOUSE: CD-5: Dems like to claim college professor Bryan Kennedy (D) is giving House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Sensenbrenner (R) a real run for his money. Kennedy may be a decent candidate, but Sensenbrenner should win again. CD-8: In the race for Congressman Green’s open seat, State Assembly Speaker John Gard (R) is facing a tough race against wealthy physician Steve Kagen (D). Kagen was an upset winner in the primary, and looks strong for the general. Although Bush won this district by 11-points in 2004, the free-spending Kagen seems to have the momentum in these final days. Kagen will win this race. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’WI06′);
WYOMING:
GOVERNOR: Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) will romp to a second term in a landslide win. RESULT: DEM HOLD.
US SENATE: US Senator Craig Thomas (R) will also win in a landslide — the only real question is whether Freudenthal’s landslide will be higher than Thomas’ landslide. RESULT: GOP HOLD.
US HOUSE: Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R) is in trouble. First, voters seem to view Cubin as generally ineffective in DC. Second, an unknown GOP primary foe with no money captured 40% against Cubin this summer. Next, add in the recent gaffe when Cubin — post-TV debate and still being recorded — told her paraplegic Libertarian opponent that she’d slap him in the face if he wasn’t in a wheelchair (because he had dared to ask in the debate about money she received from certain tainted lobbyists). These missteps seem to be helping Teton County School Board Chair Gary Trauner (D). Polls show Trauner now has momentum and has turned the race into a near tie. Under normal circumstances, Cubin would win. However, this is an unusual year and Cubin is running a fairly poor campaign. Trauner should score a rare Dem win for this House seat — the first since the late Teno Roncalio (D) held this seat 30 years. RESULTS: DEMS GAIN 1 SEAT.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’WY06′);
SOME FINALTHOUGHTS ON THE COMING DEM TSUNAMI …
Here is what these forecasts from the fifty states total:
GOVERNORSHIPS: Democrats +8.
US SENATE: Democrats +6.
US HOUSE: Democrats +32.
This paragraph is a key qualifier to my 2006 predictions. I’m obviously one of those pundits who sees an anti-Republican tsunami sweeping the nation this year. That is why, above and beyond any of the specific races I projected herein, I think we’ll see maybe 5 more GOP House incumbents fall to largely overlooked challengers (bringing the Democratic score in House races to around +37). Attribute it to President Bush, the unending Iraq quagmire, the Abramoff-Foley-DeLay-Taft scandals, or whatever — but there are lots of reasons why angry voters are fed-up and going to vote for change on November 7.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’Projection06′);
FREE SPEECH ZONE.
Final hours are ticking down.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 11.06.06 | Permalink | postCount(’110606a’);